Analysing Scenarios

Strategy, in simple terms, is how to use the time and information you have now to secure a specific result in the future. Whenever you are planning anything for the future, there are several likely scenarios that can occur.

For instance, if I plan to go see a movie at the cinema with a friend at 18h00 today, then generally two outcomes can occur: either I will make it or I will not.

Since making it to the movie is my preferred scenario, it would be prudent for me to assess what could hinder me. These factors, such as traffic, my friend cancelling or having to work late, become my risks.

As you can see, several risk factors are developing simply by applying basic scenario planning.

I should then further develop these possible outcomes based on what is likely and what is unlikely to happen, as well as what is in my control and what is outside my control.

In doing so, it will become immediately apparent what the main factors that have the power to determine whether I watch the movie or not are.

Additionally, it will also become very clear what uncertainties exist and whether I can do anything about them or not.

Therein lies the power of scenario planning. It allows you to accurately map out all the possible scenarios so that you are prepared for most eventualities and it empowers you to take a proactive approach to secure your outcome.

While a strategist is able to do this for any small goal, a futurist goes a step further and converts what is possible into what is probable.

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