Africa’s Push for Self-Reliance and Continental Prosperity After Agoa

The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (Agoa) on 30 September signals a pivotal moment for Africa’s economic trajectory.

Since its inception in 2000, Agoa provided African nations duty-free access to the United States (US) market.

But with its demise, the continent faces both a challenge and an unprecedented opportunity to redefine its economic destiny beyond dependency.

While Agoa served as a vital bridge for sub-saharan Africa (SSA) exports, it was always a transient tool in geopolitical alliances. Its terminus underscores a critical reality: Africa’s reliance on external markets and policies makes it vulnerable to shifting foreign priorities.

Yet, it also pushes us to reflect, accelerating efforts to harness Africa’s own resources and markets.

For instance, Africa contains critical minerals pivotal to global supply chains, especially in high-tech industries and renewable energy sectors.

These minerals could enhance Africa’s position as a key player in the ‘green economy’. If harnessed strategically, this could translate into millions of jobs, infrastructure growth, and continental industrialisation.

Data from Fitch Solutions reveals a stark reality: only 19 SSA countries exported mineral fuels under Agoa over its lifespan; this number decreased to four in 2024, with Nigeria accounting for nearly 80% of those exports.

Meanwhile, sectors like textiles and apparel now contribute a marginal share of the region’s exports to the US.

The risk?

Africa’s markets may shrink if reliance on external preferences continues rather than building resilient, intra-continental trade networks. The decline from US$9.3 billion in 2023 (about N$161 billion) to US$8 billion (about N$138.5 billion) in 2024 exposes the need for diversification and enhanced regional integration.

Relying solely on external market access cannot be the growth strategy for Africa’s economies.

The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly. US protectionism, exemplified by the recent address to the United Nations, signals a retreat from open trade policies – favouring national interests over global cooperation.

The implications for SSA are profound: deteriorating US relations with key partners like South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, and Namibia could disrupt trade flows and investment. For Namibia, for example, with less than 1% of exports directly linked to the US, the immediate tariff impact might be minimal. Yet, Namibia’s wider trade landscape remains vulnerable to global shifts.

Meanwhile, other nations face varying degrees of risk, from political instability to commodity price fluctuations.

The end of Agoa presents an urgent call for Africa to pivot to proactive continental strategies.

The African Continental Free Trade Area, launched to eliminate tariffs and barriers within Africa, is vital in this regard. It embodies a collective push toward economic sovereignty.

Strengthening digital trade platforms, industrial policies, and intra-African investment flows can foster resilient economies less vulnerable to external shocks. Moreover, forging new trade partnerships will be crucial.

The continent must craft policies that prioritise local value addition, industrial development, and sustainable resource management. By doing so, Africa can unlock its full potential, transforming raw materials into finished goods and creating a large, integrated market.

The time has come for Africa to write its own trade and development narrative that echoes across the continent and beyond.

– Jason Kasuto is the managing director at Monasa Advisory and Associate, and is reachable at jkasuto@monasa.org
*This article was generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.

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