ADB raises AIDS alarm

MANILA – Cambodia and Papua New Guinea could go the way of Sub-Saharan Africa due to the potential devastating economic impact of an AIDS epidemic on poor countries, an Asian Development Bank study warned yesterday.

“Results indicate a negative impact of increasing HIV-AIDS prevalence on health capital and economic growth, one that is particularly worrisome in countries such as Cambodia and Papua New Guinea,” said the report, written by ADB economist Ajay Tandon. The deadly AIDS cuts labour productivity and human capital, slashes individual savings rates, and crimps population growth rates.The overall result is a rise in the dependency ratio of the population, Tandon added.Cambodia now has the highest prevalence of the AIDS-causing Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Asia at 2,6 per cent of the population, compared to 7,4 per cent for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia’s 0,6 per cent and East Asia’s 0,1 per cent, it said.However, the actual number of people afflicted with the disease is enormous because of the region’s large national populations.Cambodia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Thailand and six states of India are now classified as having a generalised HIV-AIDS epidemic, it added.Econometric estimates suggest that a 10 per cent rise in HIV-AIDS prevalence in Cambodia “would lead to a decline in GDP (gross domestic product) per capita of almost 1,4 per cent,” Tandon said.For India, with the second highest number of people living with HIV-AIDS after South Africa, a similar 10 per cent prevalence rise from 0,91 per cent of the population to one per cent would shave off 0,5 per cent in growth of GDP per capita, the study showed.”Similar magnitude of effects can be inferred for Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and Thailand,” it added.Tandon gave no estimates on the effects on overall economic growth rates per country, saying prevalence rates in the region were still relatively low compared with those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which are seeing life expectancy rates plunge by up to 20 years.While HIV-AIDS prevalence in the Asia-Pacific was unlikely to follow the path taken by sub-Saharan African countries given the different patterns of socioeconomic interactions among population sub-groups, the economic impact would still be significant, the report said.”Papua New Guinea is projected to have the highest increase in HIV-AIDS prevalence and hence the highest adverse economic effect: a decline in annual GDP per capita of about four 0 per cent.”It said the effects on the other Asian countries would also be substantial.Cambodia could expect to see declines of two per cent in GDP per capita per year, Thailand 1,1 per cent per year, Myanmar 0,6 per year, China 0,3 per cent per year, and India 0,1 per cent per year.”It must be reiterated that these projected increases in HIV-AIDS prevalence rates are to be viewed as lower bounds and are far from certain.Historical experience shows that projections have tended to always underestimate the future spread of the disease,” Tandon said.- Nampa-AFPThe deadly AIDS cuts labour productivity and human capital, slashes individual savings rates, and crimps population growth rates.The overall result is a rise in the dependency ratio of the population, Tandon added.Cambodia now has the highest prevalence of the AIDS-causing Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Asia at 2,6 per cent of the population, compared to 7,4 per cent for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia’s 0,6 per cent and East Asia’s 0,1 per cent, it said.However, the actual number of people afflicted with the disease is enormous because of the region’s large national populations.Cambodia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Thailand and six states of India are now classified as having a generalised HIV-AIDS epidemic, it added.Econometric estimates suggest that a 10 per cent rise in HIV-AIDS prevalence in Cambodia “would lead to a decline in GDP (gross domestic product) per capita of almost 1,4 per cent,” Tandon said.For India, with the second highest number of people living with HIV-AIDS after South Africa, a similar 10 per cent prevalence rise from 0,91 per cent of the population to one per cent would shave off 0,5 per cent in growth of GDP per capita, the study showed.”Similar magnitude of effects can be inferred for Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and Thailand,” it added.Tandon gave no estimates on the effects on overall economic growth rates per country, saying prevalence rates in the region were still relatively low compared with those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which are seeing life expectancy rates plunge by up to 20 years.While HIV-AIDS prevalence in the Asia-Pacific was unlikely to follow the path taken by sub-Saharan African countries given the different patterns of socioeconomic interactions among population sub-groups, the economic impact would still be significant, the report said.”Papua New Guinea is projected to have the highest increase in HIV-AIDS prevalence and hence the highest adverse economic effect: a decline in annual GDP per capita of about four 0 per cent.”It said the effects on the other Asian countries would also be substantial.Cambodia could expect to see declines of two per cent in GDP per capita per year, Thailand 1,1 per cent per year, Myanmar 0,6 per year, China 0,3 per cent per year, and India 0,1 per cent per year.”It must be reiterated that these projected increases in HIV-AIDS prevalence rates are to be viewed as lower bounds and are far from certain.Historical experience shows that projections have tended to always underestimate the future spread of the disease,” Tandon said.- Nampa-AFP