SA sharply hikes AIDS estimate

JOHANNESBURG – New South African figures say more than 6,5 million of the country’s 47 million people may now be HIV-positive, a sharp jump on previous estimates likely to fuel debate on the extent of the country’s HIV-AIDS pandemic.

The Department of Health, releasing a 2004 study of women at antenatal clinics, said results indicated that between 6,29 and 6,57 million South Africans now carry the HIV virus against 5,6 million at the end of 2003. The figures contradict a May study by Statistics South Africa, the state statistical agency, which estimated that about 4,5 million South Africans were infected with HIV – a toll which would drop South Africa behind India as the country worst hit by the global pandemic.Extrapolations from data at antenatal clinics, where pregnant women have their blood tested, form the basis for most estimates of HIV prevalence in Africa, home to more than 25 million of the estimated 39 million people infected with HIV worldwide.But the method has been criticised in some African countries as exaggerating the spread of HIV-AIDS on the continent.Debate flared last year with a study purporting to show that UN estimates of AIDS prevalence in Kenya were inflated and cutting the projected number of Kenyan adult HIV infections to 1 million from as many as 3 million.UNAIDS, the United Nations AIDS agency, dismissed the study’s conclusions as unfounded, saying differences in methodology could account for different numbers and standing by its original forecasts.South African officials including President Thabo Mbeki have also questioned the severity of the HIV-AIDS crisis, infuriating activists who blame the government’s slow response for increasing numbers of AIDS deaths in the country.- Nampa-ReutersThe figures contradict a May study by Statistics South Africa, the state statistical agency, which estimated that about 4,5 million South Africans were infected with HIV – a toll which would drop South Africa behind India as the country worst hit by the global pandemic.Extrapolations from data at antenatal clinics, where pregnant women have their blood tested, form the basis for most estimates of HIV prevalence in Africa, home to more than 25 million of the estimated 39 million people infected with HIV worldwide.But the method has been criticised in some African countries as exaggerating the spread of HIV-AIDS on the continent.Debate flared last year with a study purporting to show that UN estimates of AIDS prevalence in Kenya were inflated and cutting the projected number of Kenyan adult HIV infections to 1 million from as many as 3 million.UNAIDS, the United Nations AIDS agency, dismissed the study’s conclusions as unfounded, saying differences in methodology could account for different numbers and standing by its original forecasts.South African officials including President Thabo Mbeki have also questioned the severity of the HIV-AIDS crisis, infuriating activists who blame the government’s slow response for increasing numbers of AIDS deaths in the country.- Nampa-Reuters