SA drought likely to push up maize prices

JOHANNESBURG – Rainfall has been patchy for the South African maize crop, hit by drought during planting, with some areas still desperately needing moisture, an analyst said on Thursday.

A poor maize crop in South Africa will have critical consequences for food prices throughout the southern Africa region, much of which imports maize from South Africa, analysts said, and will especially hurt the poor. The rain outlook is positive for the next few days, but less certain for the crucial February period, farm weather consultant Johan van den Berg of EnviroVision said in a report.On Tuesday the government estimated the maize area at 2,56 million hectares, the lowest since the 1940s after parched conditions forced many farmers to abandon fields.In some areas the drought has been the worst in the last 80 years.Last year farmers planted 3,18 million hectares of maize.”The past two to three days saw some good falls over some areas, but the central to western maize production areas still received very little rain and rain is urgently needed within the next week or so,” Van den Berg said.”Short-term outlooks are positive for showers for the next three days, but weakened after that”.Rain forecasts for next month are generally positive, but the probabilities decline towards the end of February.The late February period will be very important for crop development this year due to late plantings, Van den Berg said.He estimated the 2003/04 maize crop at 6,7 to 7,0 million tonnes, down from 9,39 million last year, based on the 2,56 million hectares of plantings.White maize futures, which have been very volatile due to the weather and swings in the rand, rebounded early on Thursday to touch an 11-month peak.The benchmark March contract jumped 3,5 per cent to a high of 1 419,60 rand, but pared gains to trade at 1 393 rand by 08h05 GMT.The second month contract has soared by 50 per cent over the past two months on drought fears and by a weakening of the rand.The rand was around four cents down against the US dollar on Thursday morning compared with its level when the agricultural futures market closed on Wednesday.-Nampa-ReutersThe rain outlook is positive for the next few days, but less certain for the crucial February period, farm weather consultant Johan van den Berg of EnviroVision said in a report. On Tuesday the government estimated the maize area at 2,56 million hectares, the lowest since the 1940s after parched conditions forced many farmers to abandon fields. In some areas the drought has been the worst in the last 80 years. Last year farmers planted 3,18 million hectares of maize. “The past two to three days saw some good falls over some areas, but the central to western maize production areas still received very little rain and rain is urgently needed within the next week or so,” Van den Berg said. “Short-term outlooks are positive for showers for the next three days, but weakened after that”. Rain forecasts for next month are generally positive, but the probabilities decline towards the end of February. The late February period will be very important for crop development this year due to late plantings, Van den Berg said. He estimated the 2003/04 maize crop at 6,7 to 7,0 million tonnes, down from 9,39 million last year, based on the 2,56 million hectares of plantings. White maize futures, which have been very volatile due to the weather and swings in the rand, rebounded early on Thursday to touch an 11-month peak. The benchmark March contract jumped 3,5 per cent to a high of 1 419,60 rand, but pared gains to trade at 1 393 rand by 08h05 GMT. The second month contract has soared by 50 per cent over the past two months on drought fears and by a weakening of the rand. The rand was around four cents down against the US dollar on Thursday morning compared with its level when the agricultural futures market closed on Wednesday.-Nampa-Reuters