Rain uncertainty to test

THE prospect of rain tomorrow afternoon at Absa Stadium could make predicting a winner in the return Vodacom Tri-Nations test between the Springboks and New Zealand a difficult task.

Weather forecasts are predicting that a cold front will hit Durban today, bringing rain with it, and the clouds, rain and cold conditions are expected to last through tomorrow until early Sunday.Those would be unseasonable conditions for KwaZulu-Natal, where it is normally warm and temperate in the winter, with most rain falling during summer. So far the build-up week has been dry, with the New Zealanders remarking on how warm it is. All Black reserve Luke McAlister described the conditions as being like ‘Auckland in summer’.For both teams it would have been reasonable to expect a dry game. It is hard to recall when last Durban hosted a wet weather test, and the 1995 World Cup semi-final between the Springboks and France, which was played in freak conditions that nearly caused the game to be called off, is the only one that springs to mind.It is unlikely to be that bad tomorrow, but wet weather could have a dramatic impact on how the game is played and on what the likely result would be. For instance, the All Blacks have been hinting at a ball in hand approach to break down the South African defensive system, and they felt it was only their execution that let them down last week.They probably also know full well that without Dan Carter they don’t really have the field kicking prowess to match the Springbok arsenal that includes the prodigious boots of Fourie du Preez, Morné Steyn and Frans Steyn. So they will be relying on their forwards to up their effort of last week to enable them to attack from better positions on the field.In Bloemfontein the All Blacks were forced to play from difficult field positions, and they were also pinned in their own half for long periods. The Boks were superior at forward in the 28-19 win at Vodacom Park, and that coupled with their field kicking should make them favourites for a wet weather test match.However, it is New Zealand who have what you would call wet weather momentum at the moment, as they beat Australia in the wet in their first Tri-Nations test of the year in Auckland two weeks ago. They also played considerable parts of their warm-up tests against France and Italy in wet conditions.The Boks haven’t played any wet weather rugby lately, and South African players don’t usually boast the wet weather skills and nous that New Zealanders do for the simple reason that the Cape is the only region in South Africa where you get winter rainfall. Jean de Villiers is the only player in the Bok starting line-up from that region.So if you are going to consider the weather when making a prediction about how the game will go on Saturday, it is not a clear-cut call – the Boks are undeniably well equipped for a wet weather game, but the All Blacks are the ones with the wet weather experience.For the All Blacks, the big advantage for them in this game is that they are back at sea level after spending last week on the highveld, and they did not start this week with a debilitating flight out from New Zealand. That means they have had more time both to prepare and acclimatise.They will also go into the game knowing that the Boks have not had much success against southern hemisphere nations at sea level just recently, with their last win at the coast being the last gasp Frans Steyn drop-goal win in Cape Town in the opening match of the 2007 Tri-Nations. – Superrugby