Political landscape is shifting: survey

THE RDP will become the new official opposition, while Swapo will retain its dominant position in this year’s elections, says a just-released public opinion survey.

Key findings of the Afrobarometer survey, which used a sample of 1 200 people of voting age in all 13 regions to gauge views on social, political and economic issues, were released last week by the Institute for Public Policy Research in a report titled ‘Namibia Political Party Prospects Leading to the 2009 Elections’.Responding to the question: ‘If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for’, 51 per cent of respondents indicated Swapo as their party of choice, followed by the RDP with 9,1 per cent and the DTA with 4,1 per cent. The new All People’s Party (APP), Congress of Democrats (CoD) and Nudo all received responses of between 2 and 3 per cent, the UDF got 1,6 per cent, and the five remaining parties less than 1 per cent.But one should not jump to conclusions based on these numbers, as the survey also reports that 24,7 per cent of voters are undecided. Of these undecided voters, 7,1 per cent indicated that they would not vote in the upcoming election, 10,4 per cent refused to answer the question, and 7,2 per cent said they did not know which party’s candidate they would support.The findings suggest that perhaps for the first time since Independence, Swapo may not gain the more than two-thirds majority it has become accustomed to winning, although many smaller parties will still depend on the ‘lowest remainder’ allocation to get a seat in the 72-member National Assembly.While the report states that ‘the ruling party maintains high levels of trust compared to opposition parties’, it is significant to note where the ruling party has lost popularity.According to the survey report, ‘Swapo under-performs in terms of party attachment’ amongst younger voters, with its main support, like that of the DTA, being in the age group 44 to 90. RDP’s core support comes from the 18 to 44 age group. Swapo also has greater popularity among rural populations than urban ones, while the opposite is true for the RDP. The urban/rural spread for the DTA is relatively even.’As the data show, the core support for the ruling party primarily remains older, rural, and respondents with less education, particularly from the north-central areas. As Namibians become more educated and more urban, their ties to the ruling party seem to weaken and people become more apolitical in everyday life,’ says the report. It notes, however, that even respondents without close political ties have indicated that they might vote come election time. Interestingly, some respondents also indicated the possibility of voting for a party other than the one to which they indicate ‘closeness’.’That suggests that at least among opposition party voters there is some substantial ‘swing vote’ that can change party fortunes, although no clear direction for a voter shift appears at this time,’ says the report.Alluding to incidents of political intolerance in the past year, the report concludes: ‘It would be tragic if increased party competition, which is healthy for a democracy, should somehow undermine the hard-won peace, stability and democracy that Namibia has enjoyed all these years.’nangula@namibian.com.na