Nigerian oil crisis may be prolonged by politics

LAGOS – World energy markets could face a prolonged shortfall of Nigerian oil supply after militants halted 21 per cent of the OPEC nation’s exports and kidnapped nine foreigners, analysts and diplomats said on Sunday.

The latest Niger Delta crisis feeds into mounting political instability in Africa’s top oil producer ahead of elections next year. “Jockeying in the run-up to Nigeria’s presidential elections and swelling violence in the unstable Niger Delta threaten the country’s unity and could result in the break-up of the ruling party, damage regional stability and roil global oil markets,” said Eurasia Group in a recent research note.In the immediate term, the hostages could be used by militants to prevent Royal Dutch Shell from resuming exports from two big export hubs, or as human shields to forestall a military reprisal, setting the scene for a lengthy stand-off in the world’s eighth largest exporter.”We will keep them for as long as we possibly can,” the militants said in an e-mail to Reuters on Sunday, adding that they would be used as human shields.”They will be moved around with our units and, should they come across the Nigerian army, they will serve their purpose.”The government says the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is just a cover for criminals stealing crude oil from pipelines across the wetlands region of southern Nigeria, but the militants deny this.They have demanded the release of two ethnic Ijaw leaders – an impeached state governor on trial for money laundering and a militia leader charged with treason – and more local control over the Niger Delta’s vast oil resources.The rhetoric feeds into a growing regional rivalry in Nigeria to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo after elections next year.The vote in 2007 should mark the first time one civilian president hands over to another in Nigeria’s 47 years as an independent nation.But the process of choosing a successor has been stymied by a campaign to amend the constitution to allow Obasanjo to stand for a third term.US intelligence chief John Negroponte predicted “major turmoil and conflict” if Obasanjo, who has been evasive about his plans, confirms a desire to run again.”Such chaos in Nigeria could lead to disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows, and instability elsewhere in West Africa,” he told a Senate briefing in early February.These fears are understandable in Nigeria, where at least 14 000 people have been killed in political, ethno-religious and communal violence since the restoration of democracy in 1999.Embryonic secessionist movements exist across the south, while Islamic sharia law is being enforced with increasing seriousness in the north.Rampant corruption in government has fuelled distrust and rivalry between tribes and regions.Former Foreign Minister Bolaji Akinyemi said various apparently unconnected crises, including religious protests against Danish cartoons in northern Nigeria which killed 15 people on Saturday, could combine into something more dangerous.”The government should keep in mind there is a danger that a whole bunch of grievances – whether cartoons, Niger Delta or opposition to a third term – could coalesce into a huge uncontrollable grievance,” he told Reuters.-Nampa-Reuters”Jockeying in the run-up to Nigeria’s presidential elections and swelling violence in the unstable Niger Delta threaten the country’s unity and could result in the break-up of the ruling party, damage regional stability and roil global oil markets,” said Eurasia Group in a recent research note.In the immediate term, the hostages could be used by militants to prevent Royal Dutch Shell from resuming exports from two big export hubs, or as human shields to forestall a military reprisal, setting the scene for a lengthy stand-off in the world’s eighth largest exporter.”We will keep them for as long as we possibly can,” the militants said in an e-mail to Reuters on Sunday, adding that they would be used as human shields.”They will be moved around with our units and, should they come across the Nigerian army, they will serve their purpose.”The government says the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is just a cover for criminals stealing crude oil from pipelines across the wetlands region of southern Nigeria, but the militants deny this.They have demanded the release of two ethnic Ijaw leaders – an impeached state governor on trial for money laundering and a militia leader charged with treason – and more local control over the Niger Delta’s vast oil resources.The rhetoric feeds into a growing regional rivalry in Nigeria to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo after elections next year.The vote in 2007 should mark the first time one civilian president hands over to another in Nigeria’s 47 years as an independent nation.But the process of choosing a successor has been stymied by a campaign to amend the constitution to allow Obasanjo to stand for a third term.US intelligence chief John Negroponte predicted “major turmoil and conflict” if Obasanjo, who has been evasive about his plans, confirms a desire to run again.”Such chaos in Nigeria could lead to disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows, and instability elsewhere in West Africa,” he told a Senate briefing in early February.These fears are understandable in Nigeria, where at least 14 000 people have been killed in political, ethno-religious and communal violence since the restoration of democracy in 1999.Embryonic secessionist movements exist across the south, while Islamic sharia law is being enforced with increasing seriousness in the north.Rampant corruption in government has fuelled distrust and rivalry between tribes and regions.Former Foreign Minister Bolaji Akinyemi said various apparently unconnected crises, including religious protests against Danish cartoons in northern Nigeria which killed 15 people on Saturday, could combine into something more dangerous.”The government should keep in mind there is a danger that a whole bunch of grievances – whether cartoons, Niger Delta or opposition to a third term – could coalesce into a huge uncontrollable grievance,” he told Reuters.-Nampa-Reuters