Namibia’s cereal output projected to increase

WITH the southern African region forecast to face critical food shortages during 2004-05, Namibia and Zimbabwe are the only countries expected to improve their cereal production during this period.

The latest SADC Food Security Early Warning System report, released at the weekend, projects an overall cereal production shortfall of more than 1,47 million metric tonnes for the region. This figure does not take into account replenishment through existing stocks.Namibia is expected to increase its production by 34 per cent compared to last year, while Zimbabwe should see a 53 per cent increase.But South Africa (seven per cent), Lesotho (46 per cent), Malawi (20 per cent), Botswana (15 per cent) and Angola (eight per cent) will all experience lower levels of total cereal production this year.The June estimates put maize production at 17,36 million metric tonnes – six per cent less than last year’s level.But the United Regional Interagency Co-ordination and Support Office last month concluded that the 2004-05 food security situation does not present itself as regional crisis, and that there would be no consolidated regional appeal.”Although the assessments do reveal that there are multi-sectoral needs in each of the countries concerned, these would be addressed at the country level through the UN country teams which are already geared up to tackle the so called triple threat of food insecurity, HIV-AIDS and weakened capacity for governance,” notes the report.Domestic levels in Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia will still allow them to export and, according to the report, their surplus will be sufficient to cover the import requirements of Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland.South Africa, from where Namibia imports most of its maize, should have an exportable surplus of two million metric tonnes.Mozambique and Tanzania have reversed their deficit positions of last season into small surpluses.Despite maize production having declined in Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe over the past 10 years, during the past five years most countries have achieved better maize crops than during the first half of the last decade after the severe regional drought of 1991-92.For the past four rainy seasons, Lesotho and Swaziland have endured consecutive years of drought conditions that have adversely affected agricultural production.The downward trend in Zimbabwe, the report says, has been exacerbated by the land resettlement programme which has caused a drastic decline in the commercial farming sector.The report noted that it was still concerned about whether Zimbabwe would require emergency food assistance, even though its government had said that it expected a bumper harvest this year and would not need aid.No Crop and Food Supply Assessment was carried out in Zimbabwe by the FAO and WFP.This figure does not take into account replenishment through existing stocks.Namibia is expected to increase its production by 34 per cent compared to last year, while Zimbabwe should see a 53 per cent increase.But South Africa (seven per cent), Lesotho (46 per cent), Malawi (20 per cent), Botswana (15 per cent) and Angola (eight per cent) will all experience lower levels of total cereal production this year.The June estimates put maize production at 17,36 million metric tonnes – six per cent less than last year’s level.But the United Regional Interagency Co-ordination and Support Office last month concluded that the 2004-05 food security situation does not present itself as regional crisis, and that there would be no consolidated regional appeal.”Although the assessments do reveal that there are multi-sectoral needs in each of the countries concerned, these would be addressed at the country level through the UN country teams which are already geared up to tackle the so called triple threat of food insecurity, HIV-AIDS and weakened capacity for governance,” notes the report.Domestic levels in Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia will still allow them to export and, according to the report, their surplus will be sufficient to cover the import requirements of Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland.South Africa, from where Namibia imports most of its maize, should have an exportable surplus of two million metric tonnes.Mozambique and Tanzania have reversed their deficit positions of last season into small surpluses.Despite maize production having declined in Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe over the past 10 years, during the past five years most countries have achieved better maize crops than during the first half of the last decade after the severe regional drought of 1991-92.For the past four rainy seasons, Lesotho and Swaziland have endured consecutive years of drought conditions that have adversely affected agricultural production.The downward trend in Zimbabwe, the report says, has been exacerbated by the land resettlement programme which has caused a drastic decline in the commercial farming sector.The report noted that it was still concerned about whether Zimbabwe would require emergency food assistance, even though its government had said that it expected a bumper harvest this year and would not need aid.No Crop and Food Supply Assessment was carried out in Zimbabwe by the FAO and WFP.