Drier rainy season expected

A DRIER than usual rainy season is expected for Namibia this year, weather experts are forecasting.

Most of Namibia is expected to experience below-normal rainfall in the rainy season from October to March next year, according to a seasonal outlook for the new rainy season that was released by the Meteorological Service of Namibia on Friday.The expectation of a drier than normal rainy season coincides with a return of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries, in the Pacific Ocean.El Niño is the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters which typically occurs every four to five years.The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation announced in August that an El Niño event had begun in the tropical Pacific and that this was expected to continue into 2010.The WMO announced that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0,5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.This is regarded as a relatively weak to moderate El Niño, but some scientists are predicting that the current event could strengthen towards the end of the year and early in 2010.An El Niño event is associated with drier than normal conditions in southern Africa. In eastern Africa, the event coincides with a wetter than usual rainy season.The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.According to the Meteorological Office, the central northern, northwestern, western and southern areas of Namibia are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall from October to December. The rest of the country – the central, eastern and northeastern areas – is expected to receive below normal rainfall.In the second part of the rainy season, from January to March, the rainfall outlook for the entire country looks equally unpromising. Below-average rainfall is expected over all of Namibia in that period, the Meteorological Service stated.In the period from January to March, there is a 25 per cent chance of Namibia receiving above-average rainfall. The chances of receiving normal rainfall are reckoned to be 35 per cent, while there is a 40 per cent chance of receiving below-average rainfall.In the period from October to December, the central, eastern and northeastern parts of Namibia also stand a 25 per cent chance of receiving above-average rainfall, a 35 per cent chance of normal rainfall, and a 40 per cent chance of below-average rainfall, the Meteorological Service is forecasting.The central northern, northwestern, western and southern parts of the country have a 25 per cent chance of above-average rainfall from October to December, a 40 per cent chance of normal rainfall, and a 35 per cent chance of below-average rainfall.Most of the western parts of southern Africa will have an increased chance of receiving a normal to below-normal amount of rain in the new rainy season from October to December, the Meteorological service stated. In the period from January to March, the southern part of the continent is expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, it was stated.The first rains of the season were recorded in parts of Namibia last week.At Okongo in the Ohangwena Region, 25 mm of rain fell between Wednesday morning and Thursday at 08h00. At Ondangwa, 9,8 mm was measured in the same period, 7,1 mm was recorded at Grootfontein and 0,4 mm of rain fell in Katutura in Windhoek in the same time.From Thursday morning to Friday at 08h00, a further 11,9 mm was measured at Grootfontein. Drops were recorded at Rundu, 0,4 mm at Outapi, 1,4 mm at Otjiwarongo and also at Gobabis, while 3,1 mm was recorded at Otjinene, 5,7 mm at Buitepos on the Botswana border, and some drops were experienced at Hosea Kutako International Airport. In the same period 0,4 mm was recorded at the Meteorological Office in Windhoek and 5 mm was measured in Suiderhof in the city.