Curtain set to rise again on Kyoto ballet

PARIS – The G8’s initiative on climate change has started a momentum that may profoundly influence the effort to forge the next global deal on curbing greenhouse gases.

Greens and scientists alike are shaking their heads at the bland Declaration and self-described “Plan of Action” delivered by the Group of Eight at their three-day summit in Gleneagles. Politicians, though, are more optimistic.They say Gleneagles offers a new spark of life for global cooperation on climate change, in limbo ever since George W.Bush entered the Oval Office.One of President Bush’s very first decisions was to walk away from the UN’s Kyoto Protocol, which requires industrialised countries to trim emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the byproduct of burning oil, gas and coal, by a deadline of 2010.Bush’s move inflicted lasting damage to the US image and crippled the global cleanup effort by depriving it of the support of the world’s biggest polluter.Gleneagles has gently eased the blockage.Bush, pushed by his Iraq War ally Tony Blair, has now been forced to admit that climate change is a “serious and long-term” phenomenon, that fossil fuels are part of the problem and action to fix it must be launched urgently.The G8’s cornerstone measure is a “dialogue” with emerging economies, mainly on how poorer countries can adopt cleaner energy technology to avoid becoming gigantic C02 polluters.The first “dialogue” meeting takes place in Britain on November 1, and although its agenda and participants at this early stage are unknown, the timing is important.It will take place just a few weeks ahead of the first round of negotiations, in Montreal, on what happens after the Kyoto Protocol runs out in 2012.One of the US arguments against the present Kyoto format is that it does not require big developing countries such as China and India to make targeted emissions cuts – an absence that Bush says is unfair and illogical.But developing countries say historical responsibility for global warming lies with nations which industrialised first, and primarily with the United States, which by itself accounts for a quarter of all global greenhouse-gas pollution.”Up to now, the US has blocked all discussion about a follow-on to Kyoto, and this has given developing countries the perfect excuse to do the same,” the British business daily the Financial Times noted on Saturday.”The latter argue that they will never join anything like Kyoto until industrialised countries, the US very much included, take the lead in cleaning up the mess primarily they have created.”Blair’s goal seems to be that the “dialogue” may encourage the United States into the post-Kyoto fold, if Washington can be convinced that these big countries will sign up to emissions targets, or something similar to them.Lord Browne, boss of BP, which was one of the first oil majors to acknowledge that climate change is a problem, said Gleneagles was an advance, “a beachhead on which you can go forward.”How far, though, is the big question.Right now, the different positions of the United States (voluntary curbs on emissions), of Europe (binding targets) and of the developing world (adherence to Kyoto’s present format in which only industrialised countries cut pollution) are very far apart.And Bush will be watched closely to see if he matches words with deeds and money when it comes to technology transfer.Everyone agrees that Kyoto 2 must have far deeper cuts than Kyoto 1 in order to make headway against greenhouse gases.If the first Kyoto Protocol is any guide, a long and agonising political ballet is in store.For climate experts, today’s political actions are pathetically little and almostly laughably late.A common view is that if annual emissions are not halved by around the middle of the century, Earth’s climate system will be durably damaged, resulting in more droughts, floods and vicious storms – just for starters.On present trends, emissions will surge by 63 percent by 2030 compared with 2002, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.And the technological fixes so beloved by Bush for addressing climate change – hydrogen cars, fuel cells, “clean” coal and carbon sequestration – are either untested or in their infancy and face a near-monopoly by fossil fuels.Lord May, president of Britain’s de-facto academy of science, the Royal Society, branded Gleneagles a “disappointing failure.””Make no mistake, the science already justifies reversing – not merely slowing – the global growth of greenhouse-gas emissions,” he warned.- Nampa-AFPPoliticians, though, are more optimistic.They say Gleneagles offers a new spark of life for global cooperation on climate change, in limbo ever since George W.Bush entered the Oval Office.One of President Bush’s very first decisions was to walk away from the UN’s Kyoto Protocol, which requires industrialised countries to trim emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the byproduct of burning oil, gas and coal, by a deadline of 2010.Bush’s move inflicted lasting damage to the US image and crippled the global cleanup effort by depriving it of the support of the world’s biggest polluter.Gleneagles has gently eased the blockage.Bush, pushed by his Iraq War ally Tony Blair, has now been forced to admit that climate change is a “serious and long-term” phenomenon, that fossil fuels are part of the problem and action to fix it must be launched urgently.The G8’s cornerstone measure is a “dialogue” with emerging economies, mainly on how poorer countries can adopt cleaner energy technology to avoid becoming gigantic C02 polluters.The first “dialogue” meeting takes place in Britain on November 1, and although its agenda and participants at this early stage are unknown, the timing is important.It will take place just a few weeks ahead of the first round of negotiations, in Montreal, on what happens after the Kyoto Protocol runs out in 2012.One of the US arguments against the present Kyoto format is that it does not require big developing countries such as China and India to make targeted emissions cuts – an absence that Bush says is unfair and illogical.But developing countries say historical responsibility for global warming lies with nations which industrialised first, and primarily with the United States, which by itself accounts for a quarter of all global greenhouse-gas pollution.”Up to now, the US has blocked all discussion about a follow-on to Kyoto, and this has given developing countries the perfect excuse to do the same,” the British business daily the Financial Times noted on Saturday.”The latter argue that they will never join anything like Kyoto until industrialised countries, the US very much included, take the lead in cleaning up the mess primarily they have created.”Blair’s goal seems to be that the “dialogue” may encourage the United States into the post-Kyoto fold, if Washington can be convinced that these big countries will sign up to emissions targets, or something similar to them.Lord Browne, boss of BP, which was one of the first oil majors to acknowledge that climate change is a problem, said Gleneagles was an advance, “a beachhead on which you can go forward.”How far, though, is the big question.Right now, the different positions of the United States (voluntary curbs on emissions), of Europe (binding targets) and of the developing world (adherence to Kyoto’s present format in which only industrialised countries cut pollution) are very far apart.And Bush will be watched closely to see if he matches words with deeds and money when it comes to technology transfer.Everyone agrees that Kyoto 2 must have far deeper cuts than Kyoto 1 in order to make headway against greenhouse gases.If the first Kyoto Protocol is any guide, a long and agonising political ballet is in store.For climate experts, today’s political actions are pathetically little and almostly laughably late.A common view is that if annual emissions are not halved by around the middle of the century, Earth’s climate system will be durably damaged, resulting in more droughts, floods and vicious storms – just for starters.On present trends, emissions will surge by 63 percent by 2030
compared with 2002, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.And the technological fixes so beloved by Bush for addressing climate change – hydrogen cars, fuel cells, “clean” coal and carbon sequestration – are either untested or in their infancy and face a near-monopoly by fossil fuels.Lord May, president of Britain’s de-facto academy of science, the Royal Society, branded Gleneagles a “disappointing failure.””Make no mistake, the science already justifies reversing – not merely slowing – the global growth of greenhouse-gas emissions,” he warned.- Nampa-AFP