Crux time for Nigeria as election cycle begins

LAGOS, – Nigeria enters the most important three months of its recent political history this week, beginning elections which could chart its path for further reform or plunge its most volatile regions back into violence.

The build-up to presidential, parliamentary and state governorship elections in April risks exposing ethnic and religious fault lines in the African giant, whose more than 200 ethnic groups generally live peacefully side by side.The first key contest is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primary on Thursday, set to pit President Goodluck Jonathan against ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a rivalry which has left the PDP more divided than ever.Such has been the dominance of the ruling party in Africa’s most populous nation since the end of military rule in 1999 that its candidate has won every presidential race since then. This time, it has come dangerously close to splitting apart.The controversy centres around a pact in the PDP that power should rotate between the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south every two presidential terms, a rhythm which Jonathan’s candidacy would disrupt. Jonathan’s defeat could trigger protest in the restive Niger Delta, his home region and the hub of Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry. But his victory would be taken badly in parts of the north, which has also seen its share of unrest.’Never before in Nigeria’s modern history has her security apparatus needed to be so well-informed, co-ordinated and directed,’ Stephen Davis, a former adviser on the Niger Delta to two Nigerian presidents, wrote in the Next newspaper.Nigeria is roughly equally split between Christians and Muslims who live peacefully together in almost all of its major cities. But regional rivalries bubble under the surface and the nation has been rocked by acts of violence in recent weeks. Political rallies have also turned violent in some areas.Gunmen killed several supporters of an opposition governorship candidate in Jonathan’s home state of Bayelsa in the Niger Delta on Friday during a gathering at his home, paving the way for a violent campaign period. A re-run governorship election in neighbouring Delta state passed off peacefully last Thursday, but there were isolated acts of sabotage and opposition supporters have complained of rigging, raising the prospect of protests there.History has always favoured the incumbent in Nigerian elections. The political system is based on patronage, its wheels greased by oil revenues, and whoever holds the purse strings has traditionally been able to curry favour. – Nampa/Reuters