Crops better as prices fluctuate

THE producer price of white maize and wheat has fallen year on year – despite the planting season coinciding with the highest agricultural input costs in South African history – but the price of bread and maize-meal has kept rising.

Grain South Africa, an association representing grain farmers, said in a statement last week that between April 2008 and April 2009, the price of white maize had fallen by 14 per cent, and that of wheat by 35 per cent, but between March 2008 and March 2009, bread prices had risen by 25 per cent and maize meal by 6.33 per cent.
Grain South Africa’s chief executive officer, Kobus Laubscher, told IRIN: ‘The causes of higher food prices did not come from the producer side. Food inflation is [coming] from … services added beyond the farmer’s gate. Farmers have played their part in providing food security.’
The South African Department of Agriculture’s latest monthly bulletin on food security said the expected commercial maize crop for the 2008-09 production season was 11,2 million tons, about 11,8 per cent less than the 2007-08 harvest of 12,7 million tons.
‘Projections for the current 2009-10 marketing season indicate that South Africa will have a surplus of 2,1 million tons of maize at the end of April 2010,’ the bulletin said.
The agricultural department has estimated a surplus of 655 000 tons of wheat at the end of September 2009.
AFRICAN EXPORTS
Neels Ferreira, chairperson of Grain SA, said in the statement that South Africa had exported nearly two million tons of ‘relatively cheap’ white maize in the past year, mainly to 22 African countries, with the lion’s share – about 526 000 tons – going to Zimbabwe, more than 570 000 tons to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, about 386 000 tons to Kenya, and more than 282 000 tons to Mozambique.
‘The local white maize price was, on average, R1 050 (about US$125) per ton lower than the price of what imported white maize would have been if there were a shortage,’ Ferreira said.
‘If all white maize were to be imported, South Africa would’ve had to pay R4.5 billion more for the 4,3 million tons which are used locally.’
Laubscher said: ‘The current harvest was put in with the highest input costs in history,’ and the low maize prices – a consequence of excessive supply and low demand – would mean ‘low margins’ for farmers, and would probably lead to a ‘restructuring’ of crops to be planted in the next season.
REGIONAL
OUTLOOK
Meanwhile Southern Africa’s food security has ‘greatly improved’, according to the latest USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS-NET), and unofficial estimates predict a better cereal harvest than last year.
‘The total regional deficit for the 2009-10 marketing year is projected to be much lower (two million metric tons) than 2008, due to improved harvests, especially of maize, particularly in Malawi and Zambia,’ said the May issue of the FEWS-NET bulletin.
‘Most projected deficits are for wheat, which all SADC (Southern African Development Community) countries produce in deficit and import from outside the region.’
Only two of the SADC’s 14 member states have released harvest estimates: Malawi is expecting a harvest of 3,88 million tons – a 30 per cent increase over last year – while Zambia’s estimated crop of 2,2 million tons is 51 per cent higher than the previous year.
ZIMBABWE BETTER
‘Zimbabwe’s preliminary estimates also point to an improved harvest this year, despite the February dry spell and other production challenges.
The maize harvest is estimated at 1,24 million tons, a 92 per cent increase over last year’s worst ever production levels,’ FEWS-NET said.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) is predicting a slight increase in Zimbabwe’s maize yield per hectare in the 2008/09 harvest.
FAS conducted satellite and ground surveys from February 23 to 27, when crop growth was near the maximum leaf area index during mid-season, according to a report released by the department.
Factors working against a better harvest were dollarisation, making inputs too costly for small-scale farmers, a drop of 85 per cent in seed production capacity since 2000, and the poor quality of available seed, combined with shortages of all other inputs such as fertilisers, lime, pesticides and diesel.
Zimbabwe’s 2007-08 maize harvest of 580 000 metric tons was the worst on record and led to humanitarian organisations providing emergency food assistance to about seven million people.
Zimbabwe’s national maize requirement is 1,8 million tons.
The maize yield estimate per hectare was estimated by the FAS at 0,4 tons, a slight increase on the yield from the previous year of 0,40 tons.
The joint World Food Programme/Food Agriculture Organization crop assessment for Zimbabwe is expected to be released next week. – Irin News