Crop failure to push up maize prices

NAMIBIA faces a serious food crisis that could push up maize prices.

The Early Warning and Food Information System (NEWFIS) warns that it expects a 52 per cent drop in output for white maize, pearl millet and sorghum this year. The NEWFIS bulletin says reduced planting in most crop-growing regions because of drought and irregular rains may force local millers to import maize from South Africa and it could push up prices.This year’s forecast is below the five-year average of 216 900 tonnes because of unfavourable weather throughout the season.”This year’s below-average crop will have a devastating effect on many of the poorer and vulnerable households who are struggling to access adequate food through markets,” the bulletin said.According to NEWFIS, much of last year’s food surpluses will run out by the middle of this year, resulting in depleted household food stocks, particularly in poor and vulnerable households.Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, NEWFIS predicted an aggregate coarse-grain production of 119 300 tonnes.The early warning bulletin said the period November 15 to February 15, which in Namibia is a traditional planting period, was characterised by a prolonged dry spell in many parts of the crop-growing areas.The prolonged dry spells have withered and killed crops and reduced their development.The bulletin said there was hope of a resuscitation of crops but only if good rains are received from the first part of March onwards.”The next few weeks (until end March) will be critical in determining yield potential, as average daily temperatures are likely to become cooler and the potential for frost damage increases,” the bulletin said.The crop assessment said the cereal deficit would result in increased imports by commercial millers from South Africa, although that country also faced a poor harvest.”Reduced harvests in South Africa could be problematic for Namibia’s increased commercial import needs, particularly as prices for maize could escalate,” the bulletin warned.The NEWFIS bulletin says reduced planting in most crop-growing regions because of drought and irregular rains may force local millers to import maize from South Africa and it could push up prices.This year’s forecast is below the five-year average of 216 900 tonnes because of unfavourable weather throughout the season.”This year’s below-average crop will have a devastating effect on many of the poorer and vulnerable households who are struggling to access adequate food through markets,” the bulletin said.According to NEWFIS, much of last year’s food surpluses will run out by the middle of this year, resulting in depleted household food stocks, particularly in poor and vulnerable households.Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, NEWFIS predicted an aggregate coarse-grain production of 119 300 tonnes.The early warning bulletin said the period November 15 to February 15, which in Namibia is a traditional planting period, was characterised by a prolonged dry spell in many parts of the crop-growing areas.The prolonged dry spells have withered and killed crops and reduced their development.The bulletin said there was hope of a resuscitation of crops but only if good rains are received from the first part of March onwards.”The next few weeks (until end March) will be critical in determining yield potential, as average daily temperatures are likely to become cooler and the potential for frost damage increases,” the bulletin said.The crop assessment said the cereal deficit would result in increased imports by commercial millers from South Africa, although that country also faced a poor harvest.”Reduced harvests in South Africa could be problematic for Namibia’s increased commercial import needs, particularly as prices for maize could escalate,” the bulletin warned.