Conventional wisdom fails in Indian vote

NEW DELHI – For months, the pundits had been predicting a long, chaotic political season: India’s two main parties would stumble weakly from the elections, forced to try and rope together dozens of ambitious regional parties into an unwieldy coalition government.

How wrong they were. ‘King Cong!’ shouted the headline in the Asian Age newspaper after results were announced showing a landslide victory for the Congress party. The business establishment celebrated with a 17 per cent surge on India’s stock market within hours of opening on Monday, triggering an automatic shutdown for the rest of the day.It was a victory forged across the Indian electorate, tying together a charismatic political dynasty, a soft-spoken technocratic prime minister and a series of expensive social welfare programmes aimed at India’s vast underclass.It was also a call for consistency and order in a country unused to either. Particularly when it comes to politics.Behind the victory was an unlikely trio: a 62-year-old Italian-born widow who once detested politics, her urbane 38-year-old son and a prime minister (76) known for his soporific speeches and wooden gestures.Taken together, though, that trio managed to corral a massive electorate known best in recent years for a throw-the-bums-out attitude toward most any national incumbent.At the head of the Congress party is Sonia Gandhi, once a shy stay-at-home mother. She came to politics very reluctantly, brought in to help rejuvenate the party – which had long been dominated by members of the Gandhi family – years after the 1991 assassination of her husband, Rajiv, a former prime minister.But while she came late to the Congress, she also turned out to be well prepared for the blood sport of Indian coalition politics, where loyalty and friendship are ephemeral commodities. She declined the chance to be prime minister after Congress’ last national victory, in 2004. Instead, she hand-picked Manmohan Singh, a respected, mild-mannered economist, to take the country’s top position. In the five years since then, Gandhi has overseen party politics while Singh, a famously stiff man better known for his intellect and honesty, was in charge of governance.FAMILY PEDIGREEWhile Gandhi brought natural political instincts and the glamour of her family, Singh attracted voters with something different.’There is a paradox’ about Singh, said Amitabh Mattoo, a political analyst. ‘He does not have the oratory or the kind of charisma associated with leadership, but there is a quiet, calm manner which you can trust.’The third member of the winning trio – Sonia’s son, Rahul – emerged as a major force in the Congress party ahead of the 2009 vote. The bookishly handsome member of Parliament, with his degree from Cambridge University, his friends in the IT and finance worlds and his speeches on behalf of the rural poor, turned out to be a key strategist and an indefatigable campaigner. He travelled relentlessly in the months before the election.He came with the perfect pedigree. His father was a prime minister as was his grandmother, Indira Gandhi. His great-grandfather, Jawaharlal Nehru, was the country’s first prime minister and his great-great-grandfather was one of the best-known activists for independence during British-ruled India.In a country that worships both family and celebrity, the latest incarnation of the dynasty found himself swarmed by voters wherever he went. He attracted the poor with his speeches on their behalf, and the urban middle-class with his education and his talk of modernisation. Everyone loved his celebrity.Then there were the policies.The Congress-led coalition that ruled India for the past five years created a series of expensive programmes that resonated among the poor, the backbone of the Indian electorate. The programmes, such as a job-guarantee plan for the rural poor, may have alienated parts of the business community but they did a great deal to keep voters allied with the Congress.Finally, some of the roots of Congress’ success can be found in the campaign of the other main party, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP and its prime ministerial candidate, LK Advani, portrayed themselves as the voice of India’s Hindu majority and derided Singh as weak on terrorism. They backed candidates who openly disparaged the country’s many Muslims and other minorities.’In the ultimate analysis, the BJP tried to make the prime minister out to be weak. They attacked him,’ said Mattoo. ‘That just didn’t work.’By Monday, BJP leaders were trading accusations over who was at fault for their failure, while the Congress debated who to put in the cabinet. – Nampa-AP