TOMORROW’S by-election to fill a Regional Council vacancy will go down as a major upset should one party, the incumbent Swapo, fail to win it easily.
Only two of the parties contesting the poll, Swapo and the DTA, have previously tested their popularity with Grootfontein’s voters in regional elections. Judging by the results of those and other polls at Grootfontein, Swapo must be considered the overwhelming favourite to emerge as the victor tomorrow, when about 14 500 voters will be eligible to exercise their choice at the ballot box.The main test for the ruling party will be whether it has been able to hold onto, or even increase, the almost two-thirds majority it polled at Grootfontein during the last regional election in 1998.Tests of a different kind face Swapo’s challengers.For the DTA, the by-election will be another chance to check whether it has been able to halt or turn around the fall in support it has drawn in elections at this town since 1989.For the Congress of Democrats, the test will be whether it has been able to retain or expand the support it received in its first election showing here, during the National Assembly and presidential polls in 1999.For the town’s two electoral newcomers – DTA breakaways Nudo and the Republican Party – the challenge is to see what support they have been able to muster and, more important, where that support has come from: whether drawn away from the waning DTA, or by making inroads into Swapo’s commanding majority here.Only once before, in the pre-Independence elections of 1989, has the DTA beaten Swapo at Grootfontein.In that poll, the DTA ended up the strongest party in Grootfontein district – including areas not part of the current Grootfontein constituency – when it pulled 44,9 per cent of the votes, compared to Swapo’s 32,7 per cent.The DTA has been in steady decline at Grootfontein since then.In the first regional election here, in 1992, the DTA polled 43 per cent of the votes, compared to Swapo’s 53,9 per cent.At the next election, that for the National Assembly in 1994, the DTA’s share of the Grootfontein vote dropped further, to 41,3 per cent, with Swapo registering 50,5 per cent.The deterioration of its support continued at the 1998 regional elections, when the DTA’s share of the vote slumped to 30,3 per cent of the total.Swapo’s share on that occasion increased to 66,4 per cent.The ruling party pulled even further ahead at the 1999 National Assembly election, gaining 69 per cent of the town’s ballots.Backing for the DTA had contracted to 13 per cent by then, while the Congress of Democrats (CoD), in its first poll outing at Grootfontein, emerged as a rival on 12 per cent.Two clear trends emerge from these past poll figures: a succession of ever-increasing Swapo support; coupled with constantly dwindling support for opposition options.Tomorrow, the Grootfontein poll candidates – Swapo’s Peter Kawana, Edgard Francis of the DTA, Titus Boois of the CoD, Marais Blaauw of the RP, and Nudo’s Augustinus Mbakunguna – and the voters of Grootfontein will join forces to write the latest chapter in the book of changing fortunes for political parties bidding for power in this northern town.Judging by the results of those and other polls at Grootfontein, Swapo must be considered the overwhelming favourite to emerge as the victor tomorrow, when about 14 500 voters will be eligible to exercise their choice at the ballot box. The main test for the ruling party will be whether it has been able to hold onto, or even increase, the almost two-thirds majority it polled at Grootfontein during the last regional election in 1998. Tests of a different kind face Swapo’s challengers. For the DTA, the by-election will be another chance to check whether it has been able to halt or turn around the fall in support it has drawn in elections at this town since 1989. For the Congress of Democrats, the test will be whether it has been able to retain or expand the support it received in its first election showing here, during the National Assembly and presidential polls in 1999. For the town’s two electoral newcomers – DTA breakaways Nudo and the Republican Party – the challenge is to see what support they have been able to muster and, more important, where that support has come from: whether drawn away from the waning DTA, or by making inroads into Swapo’s commanding majority here. Only once before, in the pre-Independence elections of 1989, has the DTA beaten Swapo at Grootfontein. In that poll, the DTA ended up the strongest party in Grootfontein district – including areas not part of the current Grootfontein constituency – when it pulled 44,9 per cent of the votes, compared to Swapo’s 32,7 per cent. The DTA has been in steady decline at Grootfontein since then. In the first regional election here, in 1992, the DTA polled 43 per cent of the votes, compared to Swapo’s 53,9 per cent. At the next election, that for the National Assembly in 1994, the DTA’s share of the Grootfontein vote dropped further, to 41,3 per cent, with Swapo registering 50,5 per cent. The deterioration of its support continued at the 1998 regional elections, when the DTA’s share of the vote slumped to 30,3 per cent of the total. Swapo’s share on that occasion increased to 66,4 per cent. The ruling party pulled even further ahead at the 1999 National Assembly election, gaining 69 per cent of the town’s ballots. Backing for the DTA had contracted to 13 per cent by then, while the Congress of Democrats (CoD), in its first poll outing at Grootfontein, emerged as a rival on 12 per cent. Two clear trends emerge from these past poll figures: a succession of ever-increasing Swapo support; coupled with constantly dwindling support for opposition options. Tomorrow, the Grootfontein poll candidates – Swapo’s Peter Kawana, Edgard Francis of the DTA, Titus Boois of the CoD, Marais Blaauw of the RP, and Nudo’s Augustinus Mbakunguna – and the voters of Grootfontein will join forces to write the latest chapter in the book of changing fortunes for political parties bidding for power in this northern town.
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