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Elections: It’s all systems go!
Polling stations around the country are ready for today and tomorrow’s presidential and National Assembly elections. Yesterday, the polling station at the Moses //Garoëb Primary School in Windhoek was just waiting for the delivery of the polling booths. Constable Simeon Haikakua will be guarding the ballot boxes throughout the night.
The leader of the opposition Congress of Democrats (CoD) Ben Ulenga casting his vote at Othika, Omusati Region, in northern Namibia on Friday morning.
Libolly Haufiku of the Rally for Democracy and Progress, and the President of the Monitor Action Group (MAG), Jurie Viljoen, and his wife, turned out at the polling station at the MTC head office in Olympia, Windhoek, to cast their votes on Friday morning.
From left, Nepolo Onesmus, Hilalia Iyambo, Birgitta Shithigona, Ruana Shidute and JJ Shujamba who voted at the coast on Friday morning. They told The Namibian that they made sure to be first in line at Meduletu Hall in Mondesa, Swakopmund, on the first day of voting. They took their position at 02h00 . Voting started at 07h00. Photo: Adam Hartman
ONE of Namibia’s biggest logistical operations gets into full swing this morning when over one million voters are expected to stream to polling stations to elect the country’s President and National Assembly members.
• 14 political parties
• 3 259 polling stations
• 10 800 polling officers
• 1 553 polling teams
• around one million voters
“It’s all systems go. The hour has arrived and we are ready,” said Rukee Tjingaete, spokesperson of the Electoral Commission of Namibia.
“Come rain or shine”, 3 259 polling stations are expected to open their doors at 07h00 to this morning. Of the above, 997 polling stations are fixed and the remainder will move around.
“The country is just too big. Some of the farms, especially commercial farms, have less than 10 voters but we must cover every vote,” Tjingaete said.
About 10 800 polling officers have been divided into 1 553 teams which include a driver and a Police officer.
He said helicopters and four-wheel-drive vehicles had been put on standby in case of rain in remote regions such as Kunene, Kavango and the Caprivi.
While the key areas for this election will be the most populous regions such as Ohangwena (over 126 000 registered voters), Omusati (114 600 voters), Oshikoto (93 600 voters) and Oshana (104 000 voters), tough battles are expected in the Kavango (118 800), Caprivi (34 000), Otjozondjupa (82 700), Omaheke (44 000) and Kunene (47 000) regions.
In 2004, one seat was worth 11 517 votes after the total number of voters (829 269) was divided by 72 – the number of seats in the National Assembly. Whether the figure will be higher this time, with the Electoral Commission of Namibia having registered over one million voters, will depend on turnout.
TURNOUT
Although the 2004 election (with an 85 per cent turnout) was regarded as one of Namibia’s most vibrant elections since 1989 (97 per cent) because it was about the election of the country’s second President after Sam Nujoma – who usually garnered more votes than Swapo – this year will be intriguing due to the emergence of the Rally for Democracy and Progress.
If the same proportion of voters turn out as in 2004 (around 76 per cent) then one seat is likely to be worth around 12 000 votes.
As a result Monitor Action Group – which scraped into Parliament in 2004 – could struggle to keep its seat while the Republican Party, if its support remains stable at about 15 000 votes, may retain its seat.
The old lady of Namibian politics, Swanu, and the Namibia Democratic Movement for Change – which garnered around 4 000 votes in 2004 – could find themselves out in the cold if they do not pull larger numbers this time around.
While the Omusati, Ohangwena, Oshikoto and Oshana regions – home to some 438 900 voters or around 43 per cent of all registered voters – could deliver 36 seats in Parliament if the turnout is above 75 per cent, the emergence of the RDP in the battle could well change the picture in the North.
Although RDP did not perform as they desired in the regional by-elections and the Omuthiya local election, they have sizeable support in the four regions.
The real battles are expected in the Caprivi, Kavango, Omaheke, Hardap and Kunene regions.
Kavango has 118 889 registered voters – enough to swing 10 seats in the National Assembly – while Caprivi could account for three seats.
In 1994 the DTA won the Caprivi Region with 11 868 votes compared to 11 765 for Swapo, but the ruling party snatched it five years later with a clear majority after a very low turnout.
The low turnout in 1999 was attributed to the separatist attack in August in which former Swapo and DTA leader Mishake Muyongo and Chief Boniface Mamili were involved.
In 2004 some 29 164 Caprivi voters turned out as Swapo ran away with over 19 500 votes compared to the 3 872 of the nearest Congress of Democrats.
The region has proven to have sympathy towards new political parties but it is not clear how effective RDP’s campaign there has been.
Five years ago Swapo set a target to wrest Kunene away from the opposition United Democratic Front.
As a result the ruling party intensified Government programmes in the northwest of the country and went about discrediting the opposition for lack of initiative in fighting poverty there.
KEY POINTS
During this year’s campaign the DTA was able to pull a big crowd at Opuwo and all indications are that Khoirxas remains a UDF stronghold while the RDP also held a big rally at Opuwo.
Kunene, with 47 894 voters or a possible four seats, will thus remain one of the regions with the closest contests.
With the race set to be about second place and questions being asked around whether Swapo will maintain a two-thirds majority, Khomas with the largest number of registered voters (187 000) could turn out to be crucial.
Khomas, together with Oshana, Omusati and Ohangwena, were the regions where most disputes between Swapo and the RDP took place.
In 2004 Swapo collected 65 077 votes from a possible 140 145 and was followed by CoD at 18 872.
Since then the CoD had numerous internal leadership problems which led to Ignatius Shixwameni resigning and forming the All People’s Party. The party’s vice president, Nora Schimming-Chase, also left.
The party has never really recovered from the divisive Keetmanshoop congress and will have a huge challenge from RDP and the DTA for the second spot.
Shixwameni’s APP, another newcomer, is mainly based in the Kavango Region.
With that region having recorded the third highest number of registered voters – having overtaken Omusati – Shixwameni’s presence there has clearly significantly increased people’s interest in elections. Whether that interest will be translated into voting, only today and tomorrow will show.
Above all, there will be a keen eye on whether Swapo retains its two-thirds majority.
At a media briefing this week, the party’s Secretary for Information Jerry Ekandjo said “the issue here is about who is going to form the government and have the absolute majority”.
“Whether you have two thirds or not, you still rule. Victory is certain. We can smell it,” he said.
Ekandjo expects smaller parties to disappear from the political radar after tomorrow night.
“One-man-show parties will disappear from the political scene. The possibility of Swapo gaining more than 60 seats is there,” he said.
The early results – mainly from smaller constituencies in the South, Northwest or East, where the opposition normally appears to be doing well – may not mean much in the final reckoning.
Counting at polling stations is expected to start immediately after closure of polling tomorrow evening, with the results expected to be posted outside polling stations when Namibians wake up on Sunday morning.
The final result is only expected to be confirmed late next week.
