Is Vision 2030 Feasible?
NAMIBIA has joined the global mainstream in virtually every aspect of the economy. Reaching our goals remains a true challenge as the rate of economic progress is never as good as anticipated.
The future of our country and our future way of life depends very much on the determined effort to concentrate on resolving and not just lecturing of national problems in the present day.
Is Vision 2030 feasible? The question of whether the imagined dream shall be realised starts from where we are as a nation at present time. What have we done so far as a country that may raise our optimism to reach these goals? I would like to draw attention to each and every goal stipulated in our National Development Plan (NDP4) as VISION 2030 goals.
High and sustained economic growth: Economic growth means an increase in the production of goods and services by an economy over a period of time, usually one year (% increase in GDP or GNP from one year to the next). The production of domestic goods and services from the last three years has been showing worrisome statistics; the GDP-real growth rate was 3.6 percent (2011), 4.8 percent (2010) and -0.7 percent (2009). Our growth rate does not give us any hope to achieve this very important goal by year 2030.
Resources for short-term growth are not being used any better because till today, many factors remain unexploited - there is little training of the labour force, there is lack of innovations that increase productivity and the relocation of factors from low productivity to high productivity ( from primary to secondary sectors). It is also worth mentioning that the increase in resources in the long run is a challenge to reach our targeted growth, there is little if any net investment at all. The discovery of natural resources happens at a very slow pace let alone the increase in the labour force.
Fellow Namibians, there are 17 years left to year 2030 and yet, the country does not seem to have started on the road to high and sustained economic growth.
Employment creation: The unemployment rate in our country (land of the brave) is on the rapid increase.
As the grades 10 and 12 graduates’ fall into the unemployment pool in bigger numbers over the years, when more than 50 percent do not qualify for grade 11, for those who sit for grade 10 and similar numbers of those who sit for grade 12 to qualify for institutions of higher learning and vocational training centres as they take a small number. It goes without saying that due to structural unemployment, the number of unemployed increase further. Persistent poverty, increasing income inequality and slow job growth – further exacerbated by financial and poor economic activities and climate change - are critical constraints on economic and social progress.
Even among those who work, the extent of poverty underscores the need for a far greater number of productive and decent jobs. The insufficient pace in creating jobs in the country points to the need for greater national coordination of macro-economic policies, as well as active labour market policies at the regional level.
Increased income equality: The concept of inequality is distinct from that of poverty and fairness. Income disparity metrics or income distribution metrics are used to measure the distribution of income, and economic inequality among the participants in a particular economy (Namibia).
The dispersion of income in Namibia is highly uneven that it is recorded to be the world second highest following Brazil. What is at present is the opposite of our Vision 2030. Namibia is rated to be the middle income country and it is something worth listening to with a beam and say, what does one expect if it’s in the land of the brave? The distribution of income across individuals and households is so unequal that it has left a lot of brave men and women frustrated, annoyed, disturbed and discouraged if you like.
Fellow brave men and women, it makes a lot of less intellect to have the world giving us a standing ovation for being a middle income country as a newly political independent graduate. Namibia is a country with very brave people, because they sustain peace with the passion of unity.
The days are numbered and one day the passion of our people to wait and receive the share of the cake from economic resources will run out.
This will disturb peace and stability in the country. It is high time that we should put an end to drafting thick documents and revising them and rather to implement policies and address national issues at hand.
Fillemon N Johannes
Polytechnic of Namibia