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The Namibian
Mon 12 Aug 2013


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Brent climbs above US$107 on early signs of China stabilising
SINGAPORE – Brent crude climbed above US$107 a barrel on Friday, after settling at its lowest in more than a month in the previous session, as further data from China added to early signs that the world’s top energy consumer may be stabilising.
Although an imminent rebound in the world’s No.2 economy is still unlikely, steady consumer inflation in July and a slight easing in producer price deflation held out hope to markets already buoyed by Thursday’s strong trade numbers.
There was an overwhelming improvement in China’s commodity imports in July, with crude oil, iron ore and soybean shipments all climbing to record highs.
“The markets are probably underestimating the underlying oil demand in China because of all the recent policy changes that they had,” ANZ analyst Natalie Rampono said, adding that the country’s overseas purchases are expected to further rise in the second half as new refineries come online. Brent crude for September delivery was at US$107,09, up 41 cents, early on Friday after settling at its lowest since July 4. US crude was at US$104,26, up 86 cents, snapping five days of losses, its longest losing streak this year.
Despite the price rebound on Friday, both benchmarks are set to post a weekly loss as investors took profits ahead of September, when the US Federal Reserve is expected to start paring back its massive stimulus programme.
“The market is factoring in a September pullback in the Fed’s asset purchase programme,” Rampono said. “There could potentially be more profit-taking.”
The Fed’s move could tighten liquidity that has underpinned global markets, leading to a firmer dollar and weighing on commodities priced in the greenback by making them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil prices could correct this month as speculators liquidate long positions that have hit record highs, said Yusuke Seta, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan.
US crude could fall further to US$102,50, while Brent is caught in a tight range between US$105, 40 and US$108, 20, he said.
Although an imminent rebound in the world’s No.2 economy is still unlikely, steady consumer inflation in July and a slight easing in producer price deflation held out hope to markets already buoyed by Thursday’s strong trade numbers.
There was an overwhelming improvement in China’s commodity imports in July, with crude oil, iron ore and soybean shipments all climbing to record highs.
“The markets are probably underestimating the underlying oil demand in China because of all the recent policy changes that they had,” ANZ analyst Natalie Rampono said, adding that the country’s overseas purchases are expected to further rise in the second half as new refineries come online. Brent crude for September delivery was at US$107,09, up 41 cents, early on Friday after settling at its lowest since July 4. US crude was at US$104,26, up 86 cents, snapping five days of losses, its longest losing streak this year.
Despite the price rebound on Friday, both benchmarks are set to post a weekly loss as investors took profits ahead of September, when the US Federal Reserve is expected to start paring back its massive stimulus programme.
“The market is factoring in a September pullback in the Fed’s asset purchase programme,” Rampono said. “There could potentially be more profit-taking.”
The Fed’s move could tighten liquidity that has underpinned global markets, leading to a firmer dollar and weighing on commodities priced in the greenback by making them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil prices could correct this month as speculators liquidate long positions that have hit record highs, said Yusuke Seta, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan.
US crude could fall further to US$102,50, while Brent is caught in a tight range between US$105, 40 and US$108, 20, he said.
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