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Rocky road ahead for SA
By: Fran BlandyCAPE TOWN - South Africa faces huge uncertainties over the imminent resignation of President Thabo Mbeki, with much riding on the ruling party's ability to manage a smooth transition, analysts said yesterday.
South Africa's first forced resignation of a democratically elected
leader may rock the country.
It holds few surprises, however, as it was expected that Mbeki's
rival Jacob Zuma would take over as president after general
elections in 2009.
Democratic South Africa is experiencing a "watershed moment"
that needs to be very carefully managed, said Judith February, an
analyst with the Institute for Democracy of Southern Africa.
The call for Mbeki's resignation is "an unwise decision" seven
months before the election and it will be up to the ANC to keep as
much of the cabinet together as they can, she added.
"It will really depend on how they will manage to hold together
a core group of people."
However, "Thabo Mbeki was a lame duck and whether he goes now or
he goes six months from now is not of great consequence in terms of
leadership issues," said independent political analyst Daniel
Silke.
Mbeki lost the reins of the ANC to Zuma, who he sacked as deputy
president in 2005, at a confrontational party conference in
December.
Mbeki said he would step down "once all constitutional
requirements have been fulfilled" and what remains to be seen is
what path parliament - who appoints the president - will follow in
the next few months.
"It dents our image in the short-term, but not necessarily in
the long-term," said analyst Adam Habib of the Human Sciences
Research Council.
"The big question is ...
how it is going to be managed in the next couple of days.
It all depends on what Mbeki does, on how they choose the
successor, on whether there are elections.
If they manage to do it properly, it will not necessarily damage
democracy."
"Most of the outside world have accepted the fact that we will
have a change of leadership, and that the frontrunner will be Jacob
Zuma.
Most see it as a personality clash within the ruling party,"
said Silke.
But "we will see a fairly large turnover in cabinet ministers
which will leave the country in a somewhat uncertain state as it
prepares for an election".
Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said Mbeki could agree to
dissolve parliament and set an earlier election date.
"This takes Zuma a step closer to the Union Buildings that is
all.
The question is will it make it easier or more difficult for
Zuma to unite the ANC."
"If it makes it more difficult, what lies beyond that
difficulty: at best more tensions, more divisions and the ANC limps
along ...
At worst, a split."
"There might be people who want to leave the ANC.
Are you going to have a critical mass (leaving)? It would be
foolish to preclude the possibility."
While there has been speculation that the highly successful
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel may leave with Mbeki, his
spokeswoman Thoraya Pandy refused to comment on what he might
decide.
The ANC will want to avoid an early election "at all cost", said
February.
"They are not ready.
They need time to rectify things and renew their relationship
with the electorate."
Nampa-AFP
It holds few surprises, however, as it was expected that Mbeki's
rival Jacob Zuma would take over as president after general
elections in 2009.Democratic South Africa is experiencing a
"watershed moment" that needs to be very carefully managed, said
Judith February, an analyst with the Institute for Democracy of
Southern Africa.The call for Mbeki's resignation is "an unwise
decision" seven months before the election and it will be up to the
ANC to keep as much of the cabinet together as they can, she
added."It will really depend on how they will manage to hold
together a core group of people."However, "Thabo Mbeki was a lame
duck and whether he goes now or he goes six months from now is not
of great consequence in terms of leadership issues," said
independent political analyst Daniel Silke. Mbeki lost the reins of
the ANC to Zuma, who he sacked as deputy president in 2005, at a
confrontational party conference in December.Mbeki said he would
step down "once all constitutional requirements have been
fulfilled" and what remains to be seen is what path parliament -
who appoints the president - will follow in the next few months."It
dents our image in the short-term, but not necessarily in the
long-term," said analyst Adam Habib of the Human Sciences Research
Council."The big question is ...how it is going to be managed in
the next couple of days.It all depends on what Mbeki does, on how
they choose the successor, on whether there are elections.If they
manage to do it properly, it will not necessarily damage
democracy.""Most of the outside world have accepted the fact that
we will have a change of leadership, and that the frontrunner will
be Jacob Zuma.Most see it as a personality clash within the ruling
party," said Silke.But "we will see a fairly large turnover in
cabinet ministers which will leave the country in a somewhat
uncertain state as it prepares for an election".Political analyst
Aubrey Matshiqi said Mbeki could agree to dissolve parliament and
set an earlier election date."This takes Zuma a step closer to the
Union Buildings that is all.The question is will it make it easier
or more difficult for Zuma to unite the ANC.""If it makes it more
difficult, what lies beyond that difficulty: at best more tensions,
more divisions and the ANC limps along ...At worst, a split.""There
might be people who want to leave the ANC.Are you going to have a
critical mass (leaving)? It would be foolish to preclude the
possibility."While there has been speculation that the highly
successful Finance Minister Trevor Manuel may leave with Mbeki, his
spokeswoman Thoraya Pandy refused to comment on what he might
decide.The ANC will want to avoid an early election "at all cost",
said February."They are not ready.They need time to rectify things
and renew their relationship with the electorate."Nampa-AFP
