Bird flu pandemic would spark global downturn

By: * MICHAEL PERRY

SYDNEY - A worst-case scenario bird-flu pandemic could wipe US$4,4 trillion (N$26,84 trillion) off global economic output and kill more than 140 million people, according to an Australian report on the macroeconomic fall-out of an influenza pandemic.

The Lowy Institute for International Policy report detailed four

scenarios - mild, moderate, severe and ultra pandemics - using

historical data on previous influenza pandemics and the economic

fallout from the SARS crisis in Asia in 2003.

The report by the independent think tank said a pandemic would

lead to a fall in the labour force across countries, an increase in

the cost of doing business, a shift in consumer preferences away

from exposed sectors and a re-evaluation of country risk.

 

"A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the 'ultra'

scenario with over 142,2 million people killed and some economies,

particularly in the developing world, shrinking by over 50 per cent

in 2006," said the report released yesterday on the institute's Web

site www.lowyinstitute.org.

 

China, India and Indonesia would suffer the biggest national

death tolls under both "mild" and "ultra" pandemics, although less

developed countries collectively would have the largest number,

ranging from 330 000 to 33 million dead.

 

A mild pandemic, similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu pandemic,

could kill 1,4 million people and cost 0,8 per cent of global

economic output, or approximately US$330 billion.

 

A severe pandemic would be on the scale of the 1918-19 Spanish

flu, the report said.

 

That pandemic killed between 20 million and 50 million

worldwide.

 

For now, the H5N1 avian flu virus remains hard for humans to

catch, but scientists say it is steadily mutating, just like all

influenza A viruses do, and could acquire the ability to pass

easily among people.

 

The H5N1 virus is known to have killed 91 people since 2003 when

it resurfaced in Asia and has since spread to birds in Europe and

in Nigeria.

 

The majority of deaths have been in East Asia.

 

The report said that like the 10 pandemics recorded over the

past three centuries, a bird-flu pandemic was most likely to

originate in the China/Russia/Asia region.

 

"The reason for Asia being identified as a likely source of a

future pandemic strain is the high density of human population and

animal husbandry practices, including close cohabitation with pigs

and water fowl," the report says.

 

Water birds are known reservoirs of avian flu viruses, including

H5N1, while pigs can act as a mixing vessel for bird and human flu

viruses, leading to a new strain for which humans have no

immunity.

 

The report says the economic costs of a pandemic would vary

widely within regions and between countries.

 

"The composition of the slowdown differs sharply across

countries with a major shift of global capital from the affected

economies to the less affected safe-haven economies of North

America and Europe," it said.

 

Under an "ultra" scenario, Hong Kong would suffer the biggest

economic hit.

 

Its economy would shrink by just over half, followed by the

Philippines losing 38 per cent of output.

 

Japan would lose 16 per cent and the US about five per

cent.-Nampa-Reuters

 

The report by the independent think tank said a pandemic would lead

to a fall in the labour force across countries, an increase in the

cost of doing business, a shift in consumer preferences away from

exposed sectors and a re-evaluation of country risk."A massive

global economic slowdown occurs in the 'ultra' scenario with over

142,2 million people killed and some economies, particularly in the

developing world, shrinking by over 50 per cent in 2006," said the

report released yesterday on the institute's Web site

www.lowyinstitute.org.China, India and Indonesia would

suffer the biggest national death tolls under both "mild" and

"ultra" pandemics, although less developed countries collectively

would have the largest number, ranging from 330 000 to 33 million

dead.A mild pandemic, similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu

pandemic, could kill 1,4 million people and cost 0,8 per cent of

global economic output, or approximately US$330 billion.A severe

pandemic would be on the scale of the 1918-19 Spanish flu, the

report said.That pandemic killed between 20 million and 50 million

worldwide.For now, the H5N1 avian flu virus remains hard for humans

to catch, but scientists say it is steadily mutating, just like all

influenza A viruses do, and could acquire the ability to pass

easily among people.The H5N1 virus is known to have killed 91

people since 2003 when it resurfaced in Asia and has since spread

to birds in Europe and in Nigeria.The majority of deaths have been

in East Asia.The report said that like the 10 pandemics recorded

over the past three centuries, a bird-flu pandemic was most likely

to originate in the China/Russia/Asia region."The reason for Asia

being identified as a likely source of a future pandemic strain is

the high density of human population and animal husbandry

practices, including close cohabitation with pigs and water fowl,"

the report says.Water birds are known reservoirs of avian flu

viruses, including H5N1, while pigs can act as a mixing vessel for

bird and human flu viruses, leading to a new strain for which

humans have no immunity.The report says the economic costs of a

pandemic would vary widely within regions and between

countries."The composition of the slowdown differs sharply across

countries with a major shift of global capital from the affected

economies to the less affected safe-haven economies of North

America and Europe," it said.Under an "ultra" scenario, Hong Kong

would suffer the biggest economic hit.Its economy would shrink by

just over half, followed by the Philippines losing 38 per cent of

output.Japan would lose 16 per cent and the US about five per

cent.-Nampa-Reuters

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