Chasing the dots ... The Statistical Animal!
By: Chris Smith
AS a once fanatic of the spreadsheet from the days of “Visicalc” and one who progressed and enjoyed and to be rather big-headed, was rather good at the complexities and subtleties of the advanced versions with their ifs and buts, dependencies, conditional linkages, tables and all that garbage, I now admit I have removed all such programmes from my life apart from a single sheeted version capable only of simple sums!
Powerpoint also hit the bin as this programme, once useful and having the advantage of novelty and those who used it put personal life to that presented. However spreadsheets and powerpoint are now mainly used through “cut and paste” or pre-programmed, purpose designed packages with users having little idea of how they work the internal mechanisms. A parallel picture is that many users, especially those exposed to private or public customers, know how to drive the car in normal circumstances but put some ice on the road, an unusual situation (?), being unaware of the mechanics skid into the ditch and are unable to help! Locked into process slavery?
A similar argument is valid for the world of statistics. Our outputs are conditioned by our commitment to certain forms of governance and measuring how we are doing against almost rigid requirements. GDP, national accounts, population, societal values, road deaths and so it goes on. And, of course our use of statisitics is based on what we are trying to justify, usually for our own benefit! Yes, we are all guilty.
The sad thing is that the need for statistics to have a continuity of form over the years often constrains the forms of government we apply as change often makes new numbers look “bad” (or very good) although things on the ground in the change period are very different. Do we measure employment or unemployment? Do we measure number of rapes not reported or the percentage of rape cases successfully prosecuted in court? Each measure needs a different process and organisation which locks in organisational structures into “empires”.
A serious constraint in making organisations adapt to success.
I make the above points as the recent publication of the preliminary census and the Afrobarometer numbers, when viewed from the perspective of unemployed youth, seem to show that we are doing rather well, when in reality we are not. Yes our population has risen less than expected to 2.2 million, our unemployment numbers have dropped (although on technical grounds), our rate of urbanisation is heading for 70 percent by 2030 (? my guess based on numbers) and urban youth do not give a damn about politics or are less likely to follow current trends.
Equally based upon looking around our little world, it is quite evident we are spending more and more on defence, despite no real threats, that our defence force is getting older and less fit while the equipment gets more and more outdated. Our Youth ministry spends more and more on itself and seems to be going seriously nowhere beyond entrenching itself and our gender lot, listening to budget speech, seem to be embarking upon yet another action plan as it is quite clear, that even in their new luxury building, they are incapable of stopping violence against women and children. Perhaps the “struggle kids” are the catalyst to change rather than an annoying bunch of hooligans?
After all the Gini index still puts us at the top of the income unfairness statistic! Let think some silly ideas!
Now Nahas Angula is defence boss and national service often falls under such organisations, why now form a cluster of defence, gender and youth to form a belt of opportunity for unemployed youth. And yes, the government is, despite its organisational problems, a good trainer. Maybe we should even make lower grades in government of fixed tenure unless excepted, of say 15 years (including defence) and push the youth through both a disciplinary/fitness regime with a yearly service commitment and to offer those who shine opportunity to join government as replacements for those moving on. Nurse, police and teaching training can be built into this.
And surely, while on national service salaries will be poor but opportunity the reward? But while such a model may not be “the one”, change is needed to revive us, especially our youth, from being a “statistical animal” to a human Namibian. Numbers do help but we must bring people back to the table, and now before our towns erupt in 20 years time?
csmith@mweb.com.na