Chasing the dots Growth, Jobs and
By: Chris Smith
Quasi-Governance“Growing the Economy, Optimising Development Outcomes” and “Jointly doing More with Less”, the headline mottos on our budget documents, and sure this is what we want, but the budget contents and subsequent actions show our actions are exactly the reverse!
While MTEF spending of well over N$1 billion on veterans’ affairs may be politically good, any sort of return on investment (ROI) is unlikely. MTEF spending of N$13 billion on SOE support, especially on entities that were once self-supporting or part of the internals of GRN, equates roughly to the Tipeeg spend, both of which are certainly unlikely to give a ROI.
And all this is within a macro-economic framework that, I suggest, over-estimates GDP growth significantly; meaning that our debt accumulation is going to exceed predictions, especially as our ability, within present policies to control growth though internal actions is minimal. The only encouraging note is that there is obviously movement within GRN to make changes under our third presidency - I hope.
But what do we change to head for success of that motto above? Firstly what are the constraints? The prime constraint is leadership and I revert to a favourite quote on the subject, “(leadership) is to act with confidence beyond the range of familiar beacons and to overcome that resistance that requires aptitudes that are present in only a small fraction of the population and (they) define the entrepreneurial type as well as the entrepreneurial function” (Joseph Sschumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1965) Is our third presidency going show this ability to make that change?
Secondly, paraphasing another quote: ‘The only thing worse than suffering under capitalism is not suffering under capitalism’. Mary Robinson, Cambridge 1956 (?)) Of course we would all love the perfect socialist society where fair distribution and equity is a ruling code but those of us who have been around for a while know that such socialists are as rare as hen’s teeth; they are all closet raiders of the national till!
And this is exactly where we are after 23 years. Professing socialism and fair redistribution and practising focus of wealth to the few. What the consultant economist of FNB (SA), Cees Bruggerman, calls “political control objectives” under the guise of democratic development upliftment. Uncle Sam was, at least externally, an attempted fair politician in our early days but his “Camry policy” has now been turned to N$1 million Mercs for the present lot; soon it will be limosines to go with the extra size beds in Air Namibia! Social equality indeed.
But then as de Kiewiet, a Dutch/South African/US academic (University of Rochester ultimately) observed in 1946 “South Africa progresses through windfalls and political disaster”. Change in Namibia may well have the same inherited mechanism? Panic and chaos management?
The ‘familiar beacons’ of GRN induced growth through SME policies, infrastructure, education and youth motivation all have their place within activities that generate ROI. But government buildings, eco toilets, plot servicing and similar may contribute in a minor way but every time, while professing policy intent, our greatest resouce, our million under-employed and unemployed people existing within the informal sector are our biggest waste and biggest source of sustainable growth. Their initiative, creativity and drive for survival is evident on the fringes of every formal settlement where thanks to reasonable and fairly competent town controls our increasing urban population is visible.
These people are our (and Africa’s) resource to sustainable growth. As various scholars have suggested these economies, starved of cash (Collier, Dollar) respond to cash inputs through giving a good ROI on those inputs. Yes, proof is difficult and the dependency fanatics will quote the usual bottle store assumptions. But ultimately Namibia’s growth and wealth will depend upon the maximum number of citizens being productive, not the spend of a few IRBs!
The BIG experiment, while admittedly shallow and local, did indicate promise, a possible way to ‘banking for all’ and electronic person information. This column has in the past suggested ways to progress such a social grant system (to all) and how to use it to motivate activities rather than penalise non-conformance (Brazil?).
Remember governance is not about ticking off boxes, it is about making real change, about doing more things with less and raising a nation to greater heights. Making the future happen, not just reacting to the past and present with more expensive band-aids. We need new beacon to progress and leaders with Thatcherite-like guts to make it happen.
Political bribery has had its day. Such leaders exist and then they can justify their Mercs and excessive lifestyles based on performance delivery, good governance. Bring on the people. Their demand is the latent growth.
csmith@mweb.com.na