Chasing the dots ...
People, Politics, Policies and Power Play (3)
BACK to Energy Policy, that area fraught with political emotionalism, big deals with potential for big personal gain and a long history of procrastination in prudent capital investment. Try doubling fuel / electricity prices, watch the nouveau mega rich flaunt their ill-gotten gains, the parastatals try to get the fuel consumer to bail out their bankrupt organisation due to commercial ineptitude or major projects “fast tracked” at double the price due to indecision! A worldwide problem from which Namibia is not exempt.
Thus the policy analyst lives in a world where they are unlikely to inherit the world as they try to balance the carefully crafted but undeliverable promises of politicians seeking election, the massive inertia of current players supported by their dollar rich lobbyists promoting their individual islands of wealth and a well greased machine of financial clout linked to both, all with their snouts in the feeding trough.
The conflict between the art of fancy words, patronage and perception versus the art of the achievable where real KWh and litres of fuel matter!
Namibia’s Energy Policy must therefore take account, in the long term, factors of supply, affordability and reliability within the inventory of available sources of energy from both internal and external sources within the context that increasing national wealth will require increasing energy intensity per person.
I have previously estimated that this energy intensity will probably have to increase from the current 25 to 80 KWh/day/person by 2030.
A growing population has to be factored into the calculation. Current usage is about 25% electricity, 50% fossil fuel and (about) 25% firewood.
Our current electricity supply is based on about 50% purchased imports, fossil fuel 100% import and firewood, a rapidly diminishing resource, being cut locally.
Electricity purchase costs are increasing, fossil fuels will escalate to US$250 a barrel within 20 years, firewood will run out.
Current Energy Policy takes little of this to account. We are rudderless but have potential assets. What are our input assets? Electricity, I suggest is going to become increasingly important as a primary energy source. The Kunene river, as Gove Dam is nearly fixed, is our most important source of raw power especially if climate projections prove true and more rain falls to our north; this river, with controlled flow, has about 1500- 2000MW of capacity with several generation points mapped out.
With controlled flow, despite what the dam fanatics say, needs little more than systems of flumes and tunnels to capture this energy. And guess what?
Namibians could do most of this themselves and convert labour into capital if a long-term programme is entertained; and we add value to our assets! And hydro is a good base load and will “take up “load fluctuations. Additionally we have wind, sun (think CSP) and wave energy (think power sausages) in abundance but the wind does not always blow (real output about 30% of installed), the sun does not shine at night (yet!) but 306 days a year it does and our wave heights are fairly constant at 2,5 to 3,5 metres.
Herein lies enormous potential although installation costs and output variability mean this power, as generated is difficult to use, without a valuable product.
However hang on to this for the moment; renewables have a fatal attraction, the inputs are free!
In 1994/5 I recall presenting a case to a workshop on the Basel Convention that Namibia’s Uranium resources, then less known, gave a massive opportunity to make money through the upgrading of yellow cake, re-processing of used fuel and storage of toxic waste on a rental basis. I also suggested that generating nuclear power could one day be possible if the distribution / offload systems could be developed. Such suggestions were naturally another “lead balloon job” with the MME, MOHSS, MET and various environmental groups attacking me enthusiastically! So what a pleasure to hear MME’s minister now taking some of this on board. As policy analysts say, “never say never”. Perhaps an international zone, Möwe Bay, jobs and value addition?
But the power systems are complex and find difficulty dealing with variable inputs and a big lump of generating power that cannot be turned off at will. The principle of the accumulator has been around for many years – the concept of storing potential energy in such a way that it can be controllably returned to kinetic energy; hoisting rocks, pumping water or the use of hydraulic methods are examples.
A nicer alternative would be for some form of output that produced a valuable product that could be varied with ease?
All the above show that Namibia is rich in energy resources but even more important is that our current mind set is to have tunnel vision that electricity is a cost, not a way of making money.
The peak load needs of SAPP consumers, with our new distribution links, is a source of good price income.
Alternatively, anticipated SAPP future over capacity is a source of cheap inputs. Some in NamPower already think like this but …
How can we keep electricity competitively cheap by being clever? (TBC)
csmith@mweb.com.na