Arafat's exit could revive peace talks

By: PATRICK ANIDJAR

JERUSALEM - Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's failing health and the Israeli parliament's approval of a plan to evacuate Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip may usher in a new period of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, analysts say.

"The serious deterioration of Arafat's health seems to write out

the leader of the orchestra politic," wrote editorialist Zeev

Schiff in Israel's daily Haaretz newspaper.

In what was a decisive week, Israel's Knesset voted through

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate the Gaza Strip and

four isolated settlements in the West Bank, 37 years after their

occupation.

 

Two days later, the man who many Israelis considered their worst

enemy, or at least an absolute obstacle to peace, was air-lifted

out of his West Bank base for medical treatment in Paris for a

potentially fatal blood disease.

 

In addition, this week's US presidential election may see the

victor re-evaluate White House relations with a new Palestinian

leadership.

 

Israeli commentators believe that all these factors may aid an

improvement in relations between Sharon's administration and

Arafat's successors -- particularly former premier Mahmud Abbas and

current incumbent Ahmed Qorei.

 

Peace talks, which collapsed with the outbreak of the second

intifada in September 2000, may also restart, they suggest.

 

"The situation may change, dialogue may resume, but it will take

time," said Shlomo Avineri, a political scientist at Jerusalem's

Hebrew University.

 

For some time, both Sharon and US President George W Bush, who

is standing for re-election, have made any resumption of

negotiations dependent on a clear Palestinian stance against

terrorism.

 

But on Friday, US Secretary of State Colin Powell refused to

speculate what Arafat's possible death or retirement would have on

the peace process.

 

"We have said, for a long period of time, that we believe the

Palestinian people would be better off with an empowered prime

minister who has political authority and who has control of the

security forces," he said.

 

Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom has said his country

would negotiate with a new Palestinian leadership as soon as it

renounces terrorism.

 

"Little by little (Sharon may) find he has a partner in leaving

the Gaza Strip, allowing him to return to the 'roadmap' peace plan

with European and US support," said professor Menahem Klein, an

Arab-Israeli conflict specialist.

 

"Israel is likely to hear from Europe and others that it should

reopen negotiations with the new Palestinian leadership over the

disengagement plan," Schiff also wrote in Haaretz.

 

But Klein was not convinced that the trenchant prime minister

would come to heel.

 

"Sharon could get out of it by saying that after all Arafat is

not the only obstacle to peace and that the new Palestinian

leadership adopts the same route as its president, that of

terrorism.

 

And that would bring us into chaos."

 

In the meantime, and while Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

is still threatening to resign unless the Gaza disengagement plan

is submitted to a referendum, Sharon can adopt a low-profile.

 

On Saturday, public radio also reported that the foreign

ministry has advised the government against launching any

large-scale military operations while Arafat is away in order not

to exacerbate violence.

 

- Nampa-AP

 

In what was a decisive week, Israel's Knesset voted through Prime

Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate the Gaza Strip and four

isolated settlements in the West Bank, 37 years after their

occupation.Two days later, the man who many Israelis considered

their worst enemy, or at least an absolute obstacle to peace, was

air-lifted out of his West Bank base for medical treatment in Paris

for a potentially fatal blood disease.In addition, this week's US

presidential election may see the victor re-evaluate White House

relations with a new Palestinian leadership.Israeli commentators

believe that all these factors may aid an improvement in relations

between Sharon's administration and Arafat's successors --

particularly former premier Mahmud Abbas and current incumbent

Ahmed Qorei.Peace talks, which collapsed with the outbreak of the

second intifada in September 2000, may also restart, they

suggest."The situation may change, dialogue may resume, but it will

take time," said Shlomo Avineri, a political scientist at

Jerusalem's Hebrew University.For some time, both Sharon and US

President George W Bush, who is standing for re-election, have made

any resumption of negotiations dependent on a clear Palestinian

stance against terrorism.But on Friday, US Secretary of State Colin

Powell refused to speculate what Arafat's possible death or

retirement would have on the peace process."We have said, for a

long period of time, that we believe the Palestinian people would

be better off with an empowered prime minister who has political

authority and who has control of the security forces," he

said.Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom has said his country

would negotiate with a new Palestinian leadership as soon as it

renounces terrorism."Little by little (Sharon may) find he has a

partner in leaving the Gaza Strip, allowing him to return to the

'roadmap' peace plan with European and US support," said professor

Menahem Klein, an Arab-Israeli conflict specialist."Israel is

likely to hear from Europe and others that it should reopen

negotiations with the new Palestinian leadership over the

disengagement plan," Schiff also wrote in Haaretz.But Klein was not

convinced that the trenchant prime minister would come to

heel."Sharon could get out of it by saying that after all Arafat is

not the only obstacle to peace and that the new Palestinian

leadership adopts the same route as its president, that of

terrorism.And that would bring us into chaos."In the meantime, and

while Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still threatening to

resign unless the Gaza disengagement plan is submitted to a

referendum, Sharon can adopt a low-profile.On Saturday, public

radio also reported that the foreign ministry has advised the

government against launching any large-scale military operations

while Arafat is away in order not to exacerbate violence.- Nampa-AP

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