Towards A New Political Panoply
By: ALFREDO TJIURIMO HENGARIPOLITICAL pundits have been trying to discern the systemic consequences of the succession process currently unfolding in the ruling party, Swapo.
Given that it will take but a miracle for Swapo to lose at the next
presidential elections, analysis is fitting in trying to piece
together the possible working of a system, yet untested in Namibia.
Thus, this footnote in its contribution to that question, posits
that political succession in the Swapo Party will have interrelated
aspects:who will be the top leader, which generation seizes the
reins of power and how government will be structured, and most
importantly how the new resident in State House will relate to the
Swapo Party Presidency in the short term, or bluntly put, Sam
Nujoma.
Students of leadership politics would note that the succession
pattern in Swapo is very similar to the one employed successfully
in China under Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Xemin and in recent years to
Hu Jintao.
Equally so, we have seen the same features in the succession
strategy used by Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Mahathir's
Malaysia.
Thus, its employ in the Swapo Party is not at all surprising for
historical and ideological reasons.
The three presidential nominees are to bring contrasting
leadership thinking to State House.
In the same vein, their relationship with the Party president
will not be homogeneous.
Therefore, it is important to put in perspective what the three
are likely to bring to the highest office and how their leadership
would shape relations with the Swapo headquarters, in particular
the President of the party.
First, Hifikepunye Pohamba is likely to play a transitional role
and would possibly rule for one five-year term before passing power
to a third generation leader.
Ideologically, he is of the same generation as President
Nujoma.
In fact, Pohamba is what Raul is to El Commandante Castro, a
brother and comrade or what the former French Prime Minister Alain
Juppe is to President Jacques Chirac, a loyal homme d'etat
(statesman).
Apart from this simplistic analogy of being a loyal foot
soldier, he was nominated by President Nujoma for reasons which
deserve illumination.
When political leaders retire, they think about their legacies
and how they want to be remembered.
In that sense, leaders like Sam Nujoma do not retire from
leadership, they simply move from the 'first line' to the 'second
line' of leadership.
In the process of choosing their own successors, they simply
want to avoid a political Frankenstein who would launch an attack
on their legacies.
The presidency of the country presents 'first line leadership'
and the party presidency will be the 'second line' for President
Sam Nujoma.
Thus, President Nujoma would, under a Pohamba presidency, be a
senior minister without portfolio, something akin to Lee Kuan Yew
or China's Jiang Xemin who remains the chairman of the powerful
Party Military Affairs Commission.
In a real sense, Nujoma will remain an emblematic figure looking
over the shoulder of his protegee, review major policy documents
and will likely intervene in times of controversies and crisis.
The 'second line' will be a platform to consolidate such an
enduring legacy.
Under Pohamba, our politics would shift from an all
single-powerful leader to a two-level leadership, an axis between
State House and the party president.
This relationship would not only be limited to Nujoma's tenure
as president of the party, but could go well beyond Nujoma's exit
of the party presidency.
Pohamba's leadership style, his views, his education,
practically none elsewhere other than the Swapo party, provides
Nujoma with an ideal successor.
Therefore, the Pohamba presidency is likely to provide the best
symmetries between State House and the Swapo headquarters.
This in itself does not mean that Pohamba will not beat the
successor's dilemma.
Of the three candidates, Nahas Angula is evidently the
'Benjamin' in terms of a political career in Swapo.
His leadership bid is not only audacious, but very speculative
and has never been publicly known until recently, apart from some
leaders of the student movement in the 1990's who privately touted
his name as an ideal successor.
His leadership style is intellectually interactive and the
presidency is likely to be an arena of policy thinking, but
implementation would be another question.
He has appeared personally non-threatening and is unlikely to
impose a top-bottom leadership style, but would rather seek
consensus and build coalitions with senior leaders through a flat
and accessible presidency.
His campaign themes of creating a knowledge-based society and
social justice are theoretically attractive.
Whether they are accessible to Namibians in desperate need of
jobs is another question.
They are possibly borne out of his idealism and that would be
the drive of his presidency, possibly in the tradition of Brazil
under Lula da Silva.
Conversely, his views on a whole range of issues are clearly the
result of his 'thinking out of the box.' He has at times not shied
away from bravely criticising some of the government policy
initiatives in parliamentary debates.
Angula's independence in thinking would evidently make him at
odds with the party president in some cases.
In addition, his nomination by the Swapo struggle veteran
Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, suggest that he has multiple political
patrons and this would demand astute political management on his
part.
Even so, the fact that governance under Nahas Angula would be
collective, he is far from being a political Frankenstein.
Therefore, his relationship with the paramount leader is likely
to be one of respect, least because of the generational gap.
Contrary to the two finalists, Hidipo Hamutenya has cultivated
patiently or impatiently a subterranean leadership bid running for
years.
He would rank a distant third in the pecking order if Nujoma had
to assign numbers to the bids.
Despite political adversity, he never moved his eyes away from
the biggest trophy in politics.
That would suggest that he has various scenarios worked out for
the presidency and has already a cabinet in waiting.
His post-independence political career, his interactions with
the 'high level symbolic analyst of the Washington Consensus' has
made him a universal pragmatist in sync with the demands of a
globalising world.
He is likely to create a technocratic thrust in the presidency,
and the cabinet's economic and key delivery clusters would be
occupied by specialists or pragmatists, similar to President Thabo
Mbeki of South Africa.
Politically, he has in recent years skilfully won the allegiance
of certain Swapo leaders and the way his machine organised his
nomination at the Politburo was a real coup de theatre (excellent
stage management).
It gave his campaign the broader legitimacy it lacked and has
thus tacitly confirmed that his government would symbolically not
be a departure from the norm set by Nujoma, at least in the
interim.
However, one would be quick to point out that the relations
between the state presidency under Hamutenya and the party
presidency would be one of cohabitation a namibienne.
Cohabitation invokes bad images in French political life and is
conceptualised as a highly competitive actor constellation of
divided government.
The President at the Elysee who during unified government is the
uncontested leader of the executive, is confronted with a hostile
Prime Minister at Hotel Matignon who is the true head of
government.
Both actors compete for public support and governance becomes a
contested arena.
In the case of Namibia, it could be a Hamutenya presidency and
the president of the Swapo party competing for the heart and soul
of the party, particularly policy direction and loyalty.
However, from a policy perspective, such a scenario is highly
unlikely unless the party machinery is administratively
strengthened in terms of policy development and monitoring.
Thus, leaving State House with a mandate to implement policy
initiatives developed collectively at Party level.
Be that as it may, his tenure in State House would be
pro-active, decisive and he would use the powers, the legitimacy
and prestige of office to assert his vision.
Whilst Nujoma is revered as the man who founded a Namibian state
and let the Namibian people stand tall, Hamutenya would want to be
remembered as the one who created an economically prosperous
country.
The length and speed with which Hamutenya would be prepared to
implement such a vision, thus his own claim to greatness, could
create tensions with the party president.
Alternatively, he would buy time and wait for the party
president to quit the party presidency before he actualises his own
political agenda.
In view of the fact that stability and unity has been the mantra
of the Swapo political elite, Hamutenya would not want to risk
adversely by launching a direct political challenge on the person
of Sam Nujoma.
Hamutenya's presidency would either confirm our longstanding
misunderstanding of the renaissance's leading political theorist,
Niccollo Machiavelli's philosophy through The Prince, or find the
good Machiavelli through our reading of the 'Discourses on
Livy'.
Whoever the future president will be, he cannot achieve the
stature of the maximum leader in the persona of Sam Nujoma.
Similarly, only the stresses of revolution could produce maximum
leaders in the tradition of Castro, Guevara, Mao and Deng to name
but a few.
Nujoma is more of an institution and a certain public awe shapes
the political environment.
As the three candidates are counting the days before the final
sprint, they know well that the political obituary of Sam Nujoma is
not yet written with his departure from the 'first line.' Their
tenure at State House will have to create the right equilibrium
with the man affectionately known as the 'old man.' That would be
the right basis for the success of this new delicate political
panoply.
If the future resident of State House chooses the alternative,
he would have to be reminded of what a senior Swapo leader recently
remarked to this article's author:'Never write off Sam Nujoma, the
man is a fighter, a soldier limited by his own mortality'.
* The writer of this article holds an M.A in Political Science
from the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa.
He is a past Senior Special Assistant to the Prime Minister.
He is currently preparing for doctoral studies in political
science at the Universite de Paris-Sorbonne, France.
Thus, this footnote in its contribution to that question, posits
that political succession in the Swapo Party will have interrelated
aspects:who will be the top leader, which generation seizes the
reins of power and how government will be structured, and most
importantly how the new resident in State House will relate to the
Swapo Party Presidency in the short term, or bluntly put, Sam
Nujoma.Students of leadership politics would note that the
succession pattern in Swapo is very similar to the one employed
successfully in China under Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Xemin and in
recent years to Hu Jintao.Equally so, we have seen the same
features in the succession strategy used by Lee Kuan Yew in
Singapore or Mahathir's Malaysia.Thus, its employ in the Swapo
Party is not at all surprising for historical and ideological
reasons.The three presidential nominees are to bring contrasting
leadership thinking to State House.In the same vein, their
relationship with the Party president will not be
homogeneous.Therefore, it is important to put in perspective what
the three are likely to bring to the highest office and how their
leadership would shape relations with the Swapo headquarters, in
particular the President of the party.First, Hifikepunye Pohamba is
likely to play a transitional role and would possibly rule for one
five-year term before passing power to a third generation
leader.Ideologically, he is of the same generation as President
Nujoma.In fact, Pohamba is what Raul is to El Commandante Castro, a
brother and comrade or what the former French Prime Minister Alain
Juppe is to President Jacques Chirac, a loyal homme d'etat
(statesman).Apart from this simplistic analogy of being a loyal
foot soldier, he was nominated by President Nujoma for reasons
which deserve illumination.When political leaders retire, they
think about their legacies and how they want to be remembered.In
that sense, leaders like Sam Nujoma do not retire from leadership,
they simply move from the 'first line' to the 'second line' of
leadership.In the process of choosing their own successors, they
simply want to avoid a political Frankenstein who would launch an
attack on their legacies.The presidency of the country presents
'first line leadership' and the party presidency will be the
'second line' for President Sam Nujoma.Thus, President Nujoma
would, under a Pohamba presidency, be a senior minister without
portfolio, something akin to Lee Kuan Yew or China's Jiang Xemin
who remains the chairman of the powerful Party Military Affairs
Commission.In a real sense, Nujoma will remain an emblematic figure
looking over the shoulder of his protegee, review major policy
documents and will likely intervene in times of controversies and
crisis.The 'second line' will be a platform to consolidate such an
enduring legacy.Under Pohamba, our politics would shift from an all
single-powerful leader to a two-level leadership, an axis between
State House and the party president.This relationship would not
only be limited to Nujoma's tenure as president of the party, but
could go well beyond Nujoma's exit of the party
presidency.Pohamba's leadership style, his views, his education,
practically none elsewhere other than the Swapo party, provides
Nujoma with an ideal successor.Therefore, the Pohamba presidency is
likely to provide the best symmetries between State House and the
Swapo headquarters.This in itself does not mean that Pohamba will
not beat the successor's dilemma.Of the three candidates, Nahas
Angula is evidently the 'Benjamin' in terms of a political career
in Swapo.His leadership bid is not only audacious, but very
speculative and has never been publicly known until recently, apart
from some leaders of the student movement in the 1990's who
privately touted his name as an ideal successor.His leadership
style is intellectually interactive and the presidency is likely to
be an arena of policy thinking, but implementation would be another
question.He has appeared personally non-threatening and is unlikely
to impose a top-bottom leadership style, but would rather seek
consensus and build coalitions with senior leaders through a flat
and accessible presidency.His campaign themes of creating a
knowledge-based society and social justice are theoretically
attractive.Whether they are accessible to Namibians in desperate
need of jobs is another question.They are possibly borne out of his
idealism and that would be the drive of his presidency, possibly in
the tradition of Brazil under Lula da Silva.Conversely, his views
on a whole range of issues are clearly the result of his 'thinking
out of the box.' He has at times not shied away from bravely
criticising some of the government policy initiatives in
parliamentary debates.Angula's independence in thinking would
evidently make him at odds with the party president in some
cases.In addition, his nomination by the Swapo struggle veteran
Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, suggest that he has multiple political
patrons and this would demand astute political management on his
part.Even so, the fact that governance under Nahas Angula would be
collective, he is far from being a political
Frankenstein.Therefore, his relationship with the paramount leader
is likely to be one of respect, least because of the generational
gap.Contrary to the two finalists, Hidipo Hamutenya has cultivated
patiently or impatiently a subterranean leadership bid running for
years.He would rank a distant third in the pecking order if Nujoma
had to assign numbers to the bids.Despite political adversity, he
never moved his eyes away from the biggest trophy in politics.That
would suggest that he has various scenarios worked out for the
presidency and has already a cabinet in waiting.His
post-independence political career, his interactions with the 'high
level symbolic analyst of the Washington Consensus' has made him a
universal pragmatist in sync with the demands of a globalising
world.He is likely to create a technocratic thrust in the
presidency, and the cabinet's economic and key delivery clusters
would be occupied by specialists or pragmatists, similar to
President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.Politically, he has in recent
years skilfully won the allegiance of certain Swapo leaders and the
way his machine organised his nomination at the Politburo was a
real coup de theatre (excellent stage management).It gave his
campaign the broader legitimacy it lacked and has thus tacitly
confirmed that his government would symbolically not be a departure
from the norm set by Nujoma, at least in the interim.However, one
would be quick to point out that the relations between the state
presidency under Hamutenya and the party presidency would be one of
cohabitation a namibienne.Cohabitation invokes bad images in French
political life and is conceptualised as a highly competitive actor
constellation of divided government.The President at the Elysee who
during unified government is the uncontested leader of the
executive, is confronted with a hostile Prime Minister at Hotel
Matignon who is the true head of government.Both actors compete for
public support and governance becomes a contested arena.In the case
of Namibia, it could be a Hamutenya presidency and the president of
the Swapo party competing for the heart and soul of the party,
particularly policy direction and loyalty.However, from a policy
perspective, such a scenario is highly unlikely unless the party
machinery is administratively strengthened in terms of policy
development and monitoring.Thus, leaving State House with a mandate
to implement policy initiatives developed collectively at Party
level.Be that as it may, his tenure in State House would be
pro-active, decisive and he would use the powers, the legitimacy
and prestige of office to assert his vision.Whilst Nujoma is
revered as the man who founded a Namibian state and let the
Namibian people stand tall, Hamutenya would want to be remembered
as the one who created an economically prosperous country.The
length and speed with which Hamutenya would be prepared to
implement such a vision, thus his own claim to greatness, could
create tensions with the party president.Alternatively, he would
buy time and wait for the party president to quit the party
presidency before he actualises his own political agenda.In view of
the fact that stability and unity has been the mantra of the Swapo
political elite, Hamutenya would not want to risk adversely by
launching a direct political challenge on the person of Sam
Nujoma.Hamutenya's presidency would either confirm our longstanding
misunderstanding of the renaissance's leading political theorist,
Niccollo Machiavelli's philosophy through The Prince, or find the
good Machiavelli through our reading of the 'Discourses on
Livy'.Whoever the future president will be, he cannot achieve the
stature of the maximum leader in the persona of Sam
Nujoma.Similarly, only the stresses of revolution could produce
maximum leaders in the tradition of Castro, Guevara, Mao and Deng
to name but a few.Nujoma is more of an institution and a certain
public awe shapes the political environment.As the three candidates
are counting the days before the final sprint, they know well that
the political obituary of Sam Nujoma is not yet written with his
departure from the 'first line.' Their tenure at State House will
have to create the right equilibrium with the man affectionately
known as the 'old man.' That would be the right basis for the
success of this new delicate political panoply.If the future
resident of State House chooses the alternative, he would have to
be reminded of what a senior Swapo leader recently remarked to this
article's author:'Never write off Sam Nujoma, the man is a fighter,
a soldier limited by his own mortality'.* The writer of this
article holds an M.A in Political Science from the University of
Stellenbosch, South Africa.He is a past Senior Special Assistant to
the Prime Minister.He is currently preparing for doctoral studies
in political science at the Universite de Paris-Sorbonne, France.