Politics, Religion and Polio
By: GWYNNE DYER'Unsophisticated' is not a word that springs to mind when somebody mentions Nigerians.
Indeed, all across Africa Nigerians have the reputation for being
not just clever but -- how shall we put this? -- a bit too clever
for their own good.
So what can explain the strange events in the northern state of
Kano over the past year? Only months after he was elected governor
of the predominantly Muslim state in April of last year, Ibrahim
Shekarau suspended all vaccinations against polio in Kano in
response to claims by local religious leaders that the vaccine made
women infertile and 'rumours' that it was a Western plot to reduce
the number of Muslims.
For almost a year now no children in Kano have been vaccinated,
and as a result over 250 Nigerian children have been paralysed by
the polio virus so far this year.
But it gets worse.
Polio was scheduled to be the next infectious disease (after
smallpox) to be exterminated entirely in the wild.
If enough people are vaccinated at the same time all around the
world, the virus will simply die out.
Work has been underway since 1988 (when the disease was endemic
in 125 countries), and huge progress has been made.
In 1998, when the Global Polio Eradication Initiative went into
high gear, about a thousand children were being stricken by polio
around the world each day.
There were only 783 cases worldwide in all of 2003.
Three billion dollars have been spent, 20 million volunteers
have helped with the immunisation blitzes, and by last year the
disease still had a foothold in only six countries.
There were hopes that the disease would be extinct in the wild
by the end of this year.
Unfortunately, one of the six countries where polio still
survives is Nigeria.
Good progress had been made with immunisation there, too -- but
then came last year's ban in Kano.
And since Nigerians travel a lot, polio has also shown up
recently in half a dozen formerly virus-free countries elsewhere in
Africa including (ominously) in a refugee camp in Darfur, in
western Sudan, where the war may prevent a crash immunisation
programme.
Polio cases are up fivefold in West and Central Africa this
year, and Dr Bruce Aylward, the global coordinator of the
Eradication Initiative (which is backed by the World Health
Organisation, Unicef, and Rotary International) warns that "the
virus is gathering steam to come roaring out" of northern Nigeria
during the rainy season this autumn, when new polio infections
traditionally peak.
The whole continent could be reinfected, knocking the
eradication programme back by many years.
A synchronised vaccination drive for the 22 African countries
most at risk is being organised for this October and November, but
it may already be too late.
So what can have led Governor Shekarau of Kano, not at all an
unsophisticated man, to ban polio vaccinations in his state on the
strength of mere rumours? The answer, alas, is 'politics.'
Convoluted, cynical, ruthless, Nigerian-style politics.
Nigeria is a seething cauldron of different languages, religions
and ethnic groups, but the great divide is between the mainly
Muslim north and the largely Christian south.
Yet Nigeria's politics are not really about religion.
It's just that the army used to be dominated by Muslim officers
from the north who used it as a springboard to the presidency
(Nigeria has been under military rule for thirty of the past forty
years), and then shared the wealth with their political patrons
among the politicians and traditional rulers of the north.
It was a cozy deal that died with the last dictator, Sani
Abacha, in 1998.
In 1999 Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military dictator with a
reputation for honesty (the only one who ever left power
voluntarily) won the presidency with much support from northern
Muslim voters -- even though he is a Christian.
They were revolting against the privileged clique of emirs,
religious grandees, local politicos and ex-generals who have long
relied on appeals to Islamic solidarity to secure their
stranglehold on power across the north.
So the clique panicked, and started pushing Islam even harder in
an attempt to restore their power base.
Suddenly sharia (Islamic) law was imposed across all the
northern states in violation of the Nigerian constitution and of
minority (non-Muslim) rights, in an attempt to provoke a polarising
confrontation with Obasanjo over religion.
(He didn't rise to the bait.) Elements of this clique have
probably had a hand in the wave of religious riots that have killed
an estimated 10,000 people in cities across the north in the past
four years.
And still their presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari
(another former military dictator) didn't win last year's
election.
It was shortly after that that Governor Shekarau banned polio
vaccinations in Kano because they were allegedly a Western plot to
cut the Muslim birth-rate.
This is not ignorant fanaticism; it is cold-blooded political
manipulation, and his political machine may even have started the
rumours itself.
Under pressure from the Islamic Conference (which passed a
strong resolution demanding the resumption of vaccinations at its
Istanbul summit last month) and from his own voters in Kano state
(who are now experiencing a polio epidemic), Shekarau has promised
to resume vaccinations this month.
But much damage has already been done, and he may have a few
more tricks up his sleeve yet.
* Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose
articles are published in 45 countries.
So what can explain the strange events in the northern state of
Kano over the past year? Only months after he was elected governor
of the predominantly Muslim state in April of last year, Ibrahim
Shekarau suspended all vaccinations against polio in Kano in
response to claims by local religious leaders that the vaccine made
women infertile and 'rumours' that it was a Western plot to reduce
the number of Muslims.For almost a year now no children in Kano
have been vaccinated, and as a result over 250 Nigerian children
have been paralysed by the polio virus so far this year.But it gets
worse.Polio was scheduled to be the next infectious disease (after
smallpox) to be exterminated entirely in the wild.If enough people
are vaccinated at the same time all around the world, the virus
will simply die out.Work has been underway since 1988 (when the
disease was endemic in 125 countries), and huge progress has been
made.In 1998, when the Global Polio Eradication Initiative went
into high gear, about a thousand children were being stricken by
polio around the world each day.There were only 783 cases worldwide
in all of 2003.Three billion dollars have been spent, 20 million
volunteers have helped with the immunisation blitzes, and by last
year the disease still had a foothold in only six countries.There
were hopes that the disease would be extinct in the wild by the end
of this year.Unfortunately, one of the six countries where polio
still survives is Nigeria.Good progress had been made with
immunisation there, too -- but then came last year's ban in
Kano.And since Nigerians travel a lot, polio has also shown up
recently in half a dozen formerly virus-free countries elsewhere in
Africa including (ominously) in a refugee camp in Darfur, in
western Sudan, where the war may prevent a crash immunisation
programme.Polio cases are up fivefold in West and Central Africa
this year, and Dr Bruce Aylward, the global coordinator of the
Eradication Initiative (which is backed by the World Health
Organisation, Unicef, and Rotary International) warns that "the
virus is gathering steam to come roaring out" of northern Nigeria
during the rainy season this autumn, when new polio infections
traditionally peak.The whole continent could be reinfected,
knocking the eradication programme back by many years.A
synchronised vaccination drive for the 22 African countries most at
risk is being organised for this October and November, but it may
already be too late.So what can have led Governor Shekarau of Kano,
not at all an unsophisticated man, to ban polio vaccinations in his
state on the strength of mere rumours? The answer, alas, is
'politics.' Convoluted, cynical, ruthless, Nigerian-style
politics.Nigeria is a seething cauldron of different languages,
religions and ethnic groups, but the great divide is between the
mainly Muslim north and the largely Christian south.Yet Nigeria's
politics are not really about religion.It's just that the army used
to be dominated by Muslim officers from the north who used it as a
springboard to the presidency (Nigeria has been under military rule
for thirty of the past forty years), and then shared the wealth
with their political patrons among the politicians and traditional
rulers of the north.It was a cozy deal that died with the last
dictator, Sani Abacha, in 1998.In 1999 Olusegun Obasanjo, a former
military dictator with a reputation for honesty (the only one who
ever left power voluntarily) won the presidency with much support
from northern Muslim voters -- even though he is a Christian.They
were revolting against the privileged clique of emirs, religious
grandees, local politicos and ex-generals who have long relied on
appeals to Islamic solidarity to secure their stranglehold on power
across the north.So the clique panicked, and started pushing Islam
even harder in an attempt to restore their power base.Suddenly
sharia (Islamic) law was imposed across all the northern states in
violation of the Nigerian constitution and of minority (non-Muslim)
rights, in an attempt to provoke a polarising confrontation with
Obasanjo over religion.(He didn't rise to the bait.) Elements of
this clique have probably had a hand in the wave of religious riots
that have killed an estimated 10,000 people in cities across the
north in the past four years.And still their presidential
candidate, Muhammadu Buhari (another former military dictator)
didn't win last year's election.It was shortly after that that
Governor Shekarau banned polio vaccinations in Kano because they
were allegedly a Western plot to cut the Muslim birth-rate.This is
not ignorant fanaticism; it is cold-blooded political manipulation,
and his political machine may even have started the rumours
itself.Under pressure from the Islamic Conference (which passed a
strong resolution demanding the resumption of vaccinations at its
Istanbul summit last month) and from his own voters in Kano state
(who are now experiencing a polio epidemic), Shekarau has promised
to resume vaccinations this month.But much damage has already been
done, and he may have a few more tricks up his sleeve yet.* Gwynne
Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are
published in 45 countries.