Nujoma To Step Down? A Contextual Analysis
By: PHIL YA NANGOLOHMEDIA and other reports over the weekend of April 2-3 said that President Sam Nujoma has now officially confirmed he would not seek a fourth term of office and that he has laid to rest speculation over the fourth term once and for all.
It has also been reported that Nujoma would now abide by the
Namibian Constitution and would step down on March 21 2005 when his
third term ends.
Read the Press Statement by Nujoma: "The President of Swapo
re-iterated his earlier decision that, in accordance with the
Constitution of the Republic of Namibia, he will not seek another
term of office, and will step down at the end of his term on 21st
March 2005".
This obviously shocking announcement, which purports to have
been made by Nujoma himself, came after a rather tumultuous Swapo
Central Committee (CC) meeting held over the said weekend.
This official announcement is a far cry from another shocking
announcement by Nujoma who only on March 30 2004 reportedly
indicated to a Reuters reporter that he might go for a fourth term
if the people wanted him to do so.
Vox populi, vox Dei, meaning the voice of the people is the
voice of God.
Also, please note that what is conspicuously missing from the
above statement is the fact that it does not say that Nujoma would
not accept or entertain any further demands from any quarters that
he stand for a fourth term.
Since 2002, Nujoma has been making similar flip-flop statements
about his desire for a fourth term: in some cases he has indicated
that he would step down, inter alia, because of his age, while in
others he indicated that he would go for a fourth term, among other
things, because was still young.
Over the April 2-3 2004 weekend, however, Nujoma cited only the
constitutional limitation as the prime reason for his stepping
down.
In the past, when considering whether or not he would stand for
a fourth term, the Constitution did not appear to matter.
The President has no track record of spontaneously adhering to
the Constitution.
Why all of a sudden now? On Sunday evening April 4 2004, NBC TV
News showed joyous Swapo CC members in what appeared to be a
celebratory mood.
This mood was apparently caused by their decision that Nujoma
should step down and that three candidates -- announced in this
order; Hifikepunye Pohamba, Nahas Angula and Hidipo Hamutenya -- be
nominated to vie for the presidential post.
The winner of three will be determined at the extra-ordinary
Swapo congress to be held on May 28-29 2004.
Media reports also indicated that CC members turned down and
rejected three of Nujoma's four nominees, including Secretary
General Ernest Tjiriange and his deputy John Pandeni.
Hence, the joyous mood on the part of the CC members appears to
confirm media speculations that there was fierce opposition on the
part of CC members, to Nujoma's fourth-term bid.
In the likely event that this, indeed, was the case, it is fair
to conclude that a victorious palace revolution (or revolt) against
not only the fourth term but also Nujoma's authority occurred
during the CC meeting.
That is to say, Nujoma was subdued, vanquished and forced to
shelve - albeit temporarily - his fourth-term bid and all other
collateral plans associated with the said term of office.
During the Politburo meeting on March 30 2004, Nujoma is said to
have issued an ultimatum to his subordinates to choose between two
things:either to accept Pohamba as the sole presidential candidate
or to face a fourth term for him.
Politburo members, however, fiercely opposed and defied this
ultimatum.
My question is: how and why should Nujoma allow himself to be
humiliated or insulted by people whom he has the executive power to
constitutionally dismiss summarily in the same manner he had
appointed them? In terms of both the country's Constitution
and Swapo's own constitution, Nujoma has the power to summarily
dismiss anyone not towing his line.
He also has popular support among rank and file Swapo members to
discipline anyone seen as disloyal to him.
Simply put, President Nujoma is unstoppable! Ipso facto, Nujoma
is bound to retaliate and punish those who dare to oppose his
plans.
He has done so in the past with Tony von Wietersheim and
recently with Hage Geingob, Ernest Tjiriange, Nangolo Mbumba and
others.
Constitutionally, President Nujoma also has the executive power
to sack the entire Cabinet and even to dissolve the National
Assembly if he so wishes.
Therefore I am cautiously optimistic that Nujoma will, indeed,
step down come March 21 2005.
Or am I? Such optimism is based on my observations of incidental
events or occurrences inside and outside this country,
including:Nujoma has been preparing for the fourth term at least
since the dismissal of former Prime Minister Hage Geingob.
This was followed by the demotion of Finance Minister Nangolo
Mbumba, and then by the removal of Ernest Tjiriange from his post
as Minister of Justice.
Hidipo Hamutenya, is the man that, according to media
allegations, Nujoma fears or dislikes most - neither Nujoma nor
Hamutenya have so far dismissed the enmity -- and he was removed
from his powerful and influential post at the Ministry of Trade and
Industry and transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - minus
the portfolio of the equally influential Ministry of Information
and Broadcasting.
Since August 2002, Nujoma, or those he has sent, encouraged or
instigated Owambo traditional leaders and rank and file Swapo
supporters to march in favour of the fourth term.
He has commissioned the construction of a multimillion Namibia
dollar new State House.
I am not a bit convinced that Nujoma would build a castle to be
inaugurated by Lucas Pohamba, his favoured successor, let alone for
Hidipo Hamutenya or Nahas Angula.
Rank and file Swapo members credit Nujoma personally for having
liberated this country and for being the only person capable (and I
agree) of keeping Swapo Party unity, from where national unity and
peace as well as the relative stability flow in this country.
Under these circumstances, Nujoma cannot now, all of a sudden,
be expected to shelve all these good things on which he has been
working so hard.
As in 2002 during his address to the opening of the Swapo CC
over the April 2-3 2004 weekend, Nujoma made it clear that party
divisions were unacceptable, warned against infighting and urged
unity among Swapo members. Said the President: "When there is
no unity, there will be no peace and no stability.
It is only through unity that we can achieve our goals and
objectives of socio-economic development in our country.
We must therefore hold hands and promote unity within our party
and our society".
Nujoma did not make those remarks out of the blue.
Indeed, there are widespread divisions and a potential rift
within Swapo as various factions vie for support within and
possibly without the ruling Party.
Seeing that the three leaders that the Swapo CC has nominated to
compete for the presidency will engage in what could be viewed as
sowing Party divisions and disunity as well as posing a threat to
national stability and security, this could be used by Nujoma and
others as an excuse for Nujoma to step in as he is the only one --
and I agree -- who can keep peace, unity and stability in the
country pro temperore.
Some of these divisions have already surfaced between Swapo
factions at Gobabis, Otjiwarongo, Ongwediva and Windhoek, where
Swapo members engaged in heated and, in some cases, angry brawls
over nominations as candidates.
Hence, he could even use his constitutional powers to dissolve
Parliament in accordance with the provisions of Article 57, read
together with Articles 26, 32 (3)(a) and 50 of the
Constitution.
In this case, presidential and National Assembly elections would
be held within 90 days to create a completely new Parliament and
new Cabinet with Nujoma as new Head of State.
Hence, there would be no need for holding a national referendum
referred to in Articles 63 (2) (g) and 131 of the Constitution.
Furthermore, as a human rights activist specialising also in
early warning systems, I smell a rat due to the over-intensive
interactions between the principals of the Namibian and Zimbabwean
governments lately.
I am particularly and deeply alarmed by ominous signs of a
Zimbabwe-style human rights and humanitarian crisis developing in
this country.
In addition to the aforementioned internal party divisions
within Swapo there are several indicators pointing to this
scenario.
I am alarmed at the frequency of both high and low profile
visits to this country by high-ranking Zimbabwe officials,
especially those who have been pivotal in engineering and
sustaining the current human rights and humanitarian crisis in
Zimbabwe, including: * Enter Robert Mugabe It is my belief that
President Nujoma, called a 'Mugabelite' by some media, is probably
the closest ally of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe in the whole
world. According to media reports.
Mugabe has indicated he would not step down when his present
term of office comes to an end, sometime in 2008.
If this is true - and I believe it is - then why on earth should
Nujoma step down now, leaving his friend Mugabe to face a very
hostile world alone?
* A Secret Mutual Defense Pact Last November, Mugabe arrived
here under cover of secrecy.
The exact purpose of his visit has not [yet] been disclosed
officially.
But, according to State-controlled media, Mugabe came here for
bilateral talks, including the strengthening of security
co-operation.
Hence, my suspicion that Nujoma and Mugabe might have signed a
mutual defence pact along the lines of the SADC mutual defence pact
concluded at Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in August 2003.
The Namibian parliament has since ratified the SADC pact paving
the way for SADC Member States to intervene diplomatically,
politically and militarily in the internal affairs of another
country so as to remove a threat to national security and integrity
and restore or enforce peace there.
Prior to the Mugabe visit, Zimbabwean Home Affairs Minister
Kembo Mohadi visited Namibia sometime in July 2003 and paid a
courtesy call on President Nujoma.
Mohadi also held talks with his Namibian counterpart, Home
Affairs Minister Jerry Ekandjo, and visited several police stations
in Windhoek and possibly elsewhere in the country.
* Zimbabwe-style Land Expropriation Drive Then came the shock
announcement on the evening of February 25 2004 when Namibian Prime
Minister Theo-Ben Gurirab, out of the blue, stated that there will
be a land expropriation drive in order to speed up land reform.
This announcement came on the eve of the visit to this country
by Mugabe's propaganda Minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo.
Moyo is a principal engineer in the Mugabe land grab fiasco.
* Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Media Prima facie, the
Moyo visit entailed touring Namibia's Government-controlled media
institutions:NBC - New Era and Nampa as well as the Ministry of
Information and Broadcasting (MIB).
The visit peaked with the signature of a MOU between the two
countries - apparently on media matters.
The content of such a MOU has never really been disclosed.
Professor Moyo called his visit a happy coincidence.
* Zimbabwean Defense Minister Sekeremayi On March 11 2004,
Zimbabwe's Defense Minister Sydney Sekeremayi paid a low-key visit
to Namibia where talks were held with President Nujoma.
Sekeremayi then headed north, apparently to inspect Namibia's
military installations at Grootfontein and possibly other places in
the country.
The Zimbabwe Defense Force (ZDF) has at least two aircraft in
this country, purportedly to help in the evacuation of flood
victims in the Caprivi Region.
The question is:was Namibia now really unable to deal with the
flood situation in the Caprivi Region? There has been a similar
incident before and Namibia dealt with it on its own! Could this be
an implementation of the mutual defence pact between Namibian and
Zimbabwe, which obviously also includes climate disasters, martial
law, national defence or public emergency threatening the life of
the nation? * Zimbabwean Land Reform Experts Over the April 2-3
2004 weekend, Mugabe seconded to Namibia six of his experts in land
reform to advise and train Namibians on the techniques of
compensation for expropriated lands.
There has never been similar compensation in Zimbabwe in respect
of any lands expropriated by Mugabe! Moreover, Minister Pohamba
recently explained in Parliament how disagreements over the amount
of compensation for expropriated land could be taken to land
Boards.
Hence, in my opinion these Zimbabwe contacts are no mere
coincidences.
Nor can they be seen in isolation.
They are interconnected, interrelated, interdependent and
mutually reinforcing.
Again, such contacts came at the time when there is wholesale
ambiguity on whether or not President Nujoma would go for a fourth
term as well as widespread media speculations that there is stiff
resistance within and without the ruling Swapo Party against the
4th term, if not against Nujoma himself.
This scenario is similar to the situation prevailing in Zimbabwe
prior to Mugabe's seizure of white-owned farmlands and his
unleashing of violence on civil society organisations and the
political opposition in that country.
Hence, the true picture is bound to emerge in the days, weeks
and months to come, possibly before the extra-ordinary Swapo
Congress scheduled for may 28 29 2004.
* The author of this opinion piece, Phil ya Nangoloh, is the
Director of the National Society for Human Rights (NSHR)
Read the Press Statement by Nujoma: "The President of Swapo
re-iterated his earlier decision that, in accordance with the
Constitution of the Republic of Namibia, he will not seek another
term of office, and will step down at the end of his term on 21st
March 2005".This obviously shocking announcement, which purports to
have been made by Nujoma himself, came after a rather tumultuous
Swapo Central Committee (CC) meeting held over the said
weekend.This official announcement is a far cry from another
shocking announcement by Nujoma who only on March 30 2004
reportedly indicated to a Reuters reporter that he might go for a
fourth term if the people wanted him to do so.Vox populi, vox Dei,
meaning the voice of the people is the voice of God.Also, please
note that what is conspicuously missing from the above statement is
the fact that it does not say that Nujoma would not accept or
entertain any further demands from any quarters that he stand for a
fourth term.Since 2002, Nujoma has been making similar flip-flop
statements about his desire for a fourth term: in some cases he has
indicated that he would step down, inter alia, because of his age,
while in others he indicated that he would go for a fourth term,
among other things, because was still young.Over the April 2-3 2004
weekend, however, Nujoma cited only the constitutional limitation
as the prime reason for his stepping down.In the past, when
considering whether or not he would stand for a fourth term, the
Constitution did not appear to matter.The President has no track
record of spontaneously adhering to the Constitution.Why all of a
sudden now? On Sunday evening April 4 2004, NBC TV News showed
joyous Swapo CC members in what appeared to be a celebratory
mood.This mood was apparently caused by their decision that Nujoma
should step down and that three candidates -- announced in this
order; Hifikepunye Pohamba, Nahas Angula and Hidipo Hamutenya -- be
nominated to vie for the presidential post.The winner of three will
be determined at the extra-ordinary Swapo congress to be held on
May 28-29 2004.Media reports also indicated that CC members turned
down and rejected three of Nujoma's four nominees, including
Secretary General Ernest Tjiriange and his deputy John
Pandeni.Hence, the joyous mood on the part of the CC members
appears to confirm media speculations that there was fierce
opposition on the part of CC members, to Nujoma's fourth-term
bid.In the likely event that this, indeed, was the case, it is fair
to conclude that a victorious palace revolution (or revolt) against
not only the fourth term but also Nujoma's authority occurred
during the CC meeting.That is to say, Nujoma was subdued,
vanquished and forced to shelve - albeit temporarily - his
fourth-term bid and all other collateral plans associated with the
said term of office.During the Politburo meeting on March 30 2004,
Nujoma is said to have issued an ultimatum to his subordinates to
choose between two things:either to accept Pohamba as the sole
presidential candidate or to face a fourth term for him.Politburo
members, however, fiercely opposed and defied this ultimatum.My
question is: how and why should Nujoma allow himself to be
humiliated or insulted by people whom he has the executive power to
constitutionally dismiss summarily in the same manner he had
appointed them? In terms of both the country's Constitution
and Swapo's own constitution, Nujoma has the power to summarily
dismiss anyone not towing his line.He also has popular support
among rank and file Swapo members to discipline anyone seen as
disloyal to him.Simply put, President Nujoma is unstoppable! Ipso
facto, Nujoma is bound to retaliate and punish those who dare to
oppose his plans.He has done so in the past with Tony von
Wietersheim and recently with Hage Geingob, Ernest Tjiriange,
Nangolo Mbumba and others.Constitutionally, President Nujoma also
has the executive power to sack the entire Cabinet and even to
dissolve the National Assembly if he so wishes.Therefore I am
cautiously optimistic that Nujoma will, indeed, step down come
March 21 2005.Or am I? Such optimism is based on my observations of
incidental events or occurrences inside and outside this country,
including:Nujoma has been preparing for the fourth term at least
since the dismissal of former Prime Minister Hage Geingob.This was
followed by the demotion of Finance Minister Nangolo Mbumba, and
then by the removal of Ernest Tjiriange from his post as Minister
of Justice.Hidipo Hamutenya, is the man that, according to media
allegations, Nujoma fears or dislikes most - neither Nujoma nor
Hamutenya have so far dismissed the enmity -- and he was removed
from his powerful and influential post at the Ministry of Trade and
Industry and transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - minus
the portfolio of the equally influential Ministry of Information
and Broadcasting.Since August 2002, Nujoma, or those he has sent,
encouraged or instigated Owambo traditional leaders and rank and
file Swapo supporters to march in favour of the fourth term.He has
commissioned the construction of a multimillion Namibia dollar new
State House.I am not a bit convinced that Nujoma would build a
castle to be inaugurated by Lucas Pohamba, his favoured successor,
let alone for Hidipo Hamutenya or Nahas Angula.Rank and file Swapo
members credit Nujoma personally for having liberated this country
and for being the only person capable (and I agree) of keeping
Swapo Party unity, from where national unity and peace as well as
the relative stability flow in this country.Under these
circumstances, Nujoma cannot now, all of a sudden, be expected to
shelve all these good things on which he has been working so
hard.As in 2002 during his address to the opening of the Swapo CC
over the April 2-3 2004 weekend, Nujoma made it clear that party
divisions were unacceptable, warned against infighting and urged
unity among Swapo members. Said the President: "When there is
no unity, there will be no peace and no stability.It is only
through unity that we can achieve our goals and objectives of
socio-economic development in our country.We must therefore hold
hands and promote unity within our party and our society".Nujoma
did not make those remarks out of the blue.Indeed, there are
widespread divisions and a potential rift within Swapo as various
factions vie for support within and possibly without the ruling
Party.Seeing that the three leaders that the Swapo CC has nominated
to compete for the presidency will engage in what could be viewed
as sowing Party divisions and disunity as well as posing a threat
to national stability and security, this could be used by Nujoma
and others as an excuse for Nujoma to step in as he is the only one
-- and I agree -- who can keep peace, unity and stability in the
country pro temperore.Some of these divisions have already surfaced
between Swapo factions at Gobabis, Otjiwarongo, Ongwediva and
Windhoek, where Swapo members engaged in heated and, in some cases,
angry brawls over nominations as candidates.Hence, he could even
use his constitutional powers to dissolve Parliament in accordance
with the provisions of Article 57, read together with Articles 26,
32 (3)(a) and 50 of the Constitution.In this case, presidential and
National Assembly elections would be held within 90 days to create
a completely new Parliament and new Cabinet with Nujoma as new Head
of State.Hence, there would be no need for holding a national
referendum referred to in Articles 63 (2) (g) and 131 of the
Constitution.Furthermore, as a human rights activist specialising
also in early warning systems, I smell a rat due to the
over-intensive interactions between the principals of the Namibian
and Zimbabwean governments lately.I am particularly and deeply
alarmed by ominous signs of a Zimbabwe-style human rights and
humanitarian crisis developing in this country.In addition to the
aforementioned internal party divisions within Swapo there are
several indicators pointing to this scenario.I am alarmed at the
frequency of both high and low profile visits to this country by
high-ranking Zimbabwe officials, especially those who have been
pivotal in engineering and sustaining the current human rights and
humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe, including: * Enter Robert Mugabe
It is my belief that President Nujoma, called a 'Mugabelite' by
some media, is probably the closest ally of Zimbabwean President
Robert Mugabe in the whole world. According to media
reports.Mugabe has indicated he would not step down when his
present term of office comes to an end, sometime in 2008.If this is
true - and I believe it is - then why on earth should Nujoma step
down now, leaving his friend Mugabe to face a very hostile world
alone?* A Secret Mutual Defense Pact Last November, Mugabe arrived
here under cover of secrecy.The exact purpose of his visit has not
[yet] been disclosed officially.But, according to State-controlled
media, Mugabe came here for bilateral talks, including the
strengthening of security co-operation.Hence, my suspicion that
Nujoma and Mugabe might have signed a mutual defence pact along the
lines of the SADC mutual defence pact concluded at Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania, in August 2003.The Namibian parliament has since ratified
the SADC pact paving the way for SADC Member States to intervene
diplomatically, politically and militarily in the internal affairs
of another country so as to remove a threat to national security
and integrity and restore or enforce peace there.Prior to the
Mugabe visit, Zimbabwean Home Affairs Minister Kembo Mohadi visited
Namibia sometime in July 2003 and paid a courtesy call on President
Nujoma.Mohadi also held talks with his Namibian counterpart, Home
Affairs Minister Jerry Ekandjo, and visited several police stations
in Windhoek and possibly elsewhere in the country.* Zimbabwe-style
Land Expropriation Drive Then came the shock announcement on the
evening of February 25 2004 when Namibian Prime Minister Theo-Ben
Gurirab, out of the blue, stated that there will be a land
expropriation drive in order to speed up land reform.This
announcement came on the eve of the visit to this country by
Mugabe's propaganda Minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo.Moyo is a
principal engineer in the Mugabe land grab fiasco.* Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on Media Prima facie, the Moyo visit entailed
touring Namibia's Government-controlled media institutions:NBC -
New Era and Nampa as well as the Ministry of Information and
Broadcasting (MIB).The visit peaked with the signature of a MOU
between the two countries - apparently on media matters.The content
of such a MOU has never really been disclosed.Professor Moyo called
his visit a happy coincidence.* Zimbabwean Defense Minister
Sekeremayi On March 11 2004, Zimbabwe's Defense Minister Sydney
Sekeremayi paid a low-key visit to Namibia where talks were held
with President Nujoma.Sekeremayi then headed north, apparently to
inspect Namibia's military installations at Grootfontein and
possibly other places in the country.The Zimbabwe Defense Force
(ZDF) has at least two aircraft in this country, purportedly to
help in the evacuation of flood victims in the Caprivi Region.The
question is:was Namibia now really unable to deal with the flood
situation in the Caprivi Region? There has been a similar incident
before and Namibia dealt with it on its own! Could this be an
implementation of the mutual defence pact between Namibian and
Zimbabwe, which obviously also includes climate disasters, martial
law, national defence or public emergency threatening the life of
the nation? * Zimbabwean Land Reform Experts Over the April 2-3
2004 weekend, Mugabe seconded to Namibia six of his experts in land
reform to advise and train Namibians on the techniques of
compensation for expropriated lands.There has never been similar
compensation in Zimbabwe in respect of any lands expropriated by
Mugabe! Moreover, Minister Pohamba recently explained in Parliament
how disagreements over the amount of compensation for expropriated
land could be taken to land Boards.Hence, in my opinion these
Zimbabwe contacts are no mere coincidences.Nor can they be seen in
isolation.They are interconnected, interrelated, interdependent and
mutually reinforcing.Again, such contacts came at the time when
there is wholesale ambiguity on whether or not President Nujoma
would go for a fourth term as well as widespread media speculations
that there is stiff resistance within and without the ruling Swapo
Party against the 4th term, if not against Nujoma himself.This
scenario is similar to the situation prevailing in Zimbabwe prior
to Mugabe's seizure of white-owned farmlands and his unleashing of
violence on civil society organisations and the political
opposition in that country.Hence, the true picture is bound to
emerge in the days, weeks and months to come, possibly before the
extra-ordinary Swapo Congress scheduled for may 28 29 2004.* The
author of this opinion piece, Phil ya Nangoloh, is the Director of
the National Society for Human Rights (NSHR)