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Tuesday, August 19, 2008 - Web posted at 8:54:56 AM GMT Zimbabwe: Comments from political analysts on the deadlock: ADAM HABIB, POLITICAL ANALYST, UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG."A collapse of the talks would be a real disaster for the region." |
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"The main sticking points (are) the powers between Tsvangirai and Mugabe. I think that's the big issue." "In principle they've agreed that Mugabe should be president and Tsvangirai should be prime minister. The real issue is what are the lines of authority." "Unless Tsvangirai signs on the dotted line the crisis continues, not only simply because the billions of foreign aid does not become available, but also because he does represent a significant majority of the Zimbabwean population." * ELDRED MASUNUNGURE, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE "A deal is still in sight, despite the weekend setback. Even the parties recognise that failure is not an option and that there should be compromise. "I don't see any exit route from this protracted crisis, other than a political settlement. It appears the parties are getting closer with each meeting, despite there being unresolved issues. "The two main protagonists, Mugabe and Tsvangirai, need more prodding. The circumstances compel that a political settlement be found. "Zanu-PF and the MDC will find a common ground, probably this week. There is urgency." * LOVEMORE MADHUKU, HEAD OF NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY (NCA) PRESSURE GROUP "I don't think it (the weekend regional meeting) changes anything. The sticking points remain and it is completely unacceptable for two politicians to hold the nation at ransom". "It is unthinkable for Mugabe to sign away his power. He is not going to budge as he probably thinks he has gone far enough by offering Tsvangirai the prime minister's post and some ministries". "So this process will either collapse or the MDC will capitulate. The fact that they have stayed in this process this long shows they could eventually capitulate and be swallowed by Zanu-PF". * STEVEN FRIEDMAN, POLITICAL ANALYST, UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG "I suppose what is interesting is that there was an expectation that there would be a lot of pressure from most of the SADC heads of government on the MDC to settle. If there was that pressure it obviously didn't work out." "We know publicly that Botswana and Zambia feel that Mr Mugabe is not a legitimate president of Zimbabwe. We know others say he is. It's clearly public that there are divisions within SADC on this issue." "As long as there are divisions within SADC it becomes much more difficult for Southern African heads of government to pressurise the MDC into a settlement." Nampa-Reuters - Reporting by Nelson Banya in Harare; Phakamisa Ndzamela in Johannesburg |
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