With church congregations rising across Africa, southern Asia and Latin America, observers see a global church that is increasingly oriented towards the south, and away from its European heartland.

In which case, some ask, is it time to think of marking this shift by naming an African pope, the first since Pope Gelasius I, who led the church between 492 and 496 when early Christians were struggling to convert a pagan Europe? Step forward Cardinal Francis Arinze, the 72-year-old Prefect of Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, one of John Paul II's closest advisers, a staunch conservative and number four in the Vatican hierarchy.

Nigerian Catholics were careful on Friday not to be distracted from their prayers for the good health of John Paul II by premature talk of a successor.

"We have cardinals Arinze and Olubunmi Okogie who are eligible for election as pope.

But our concern now is not on succession, but to pray for good health for the pope," church spokesperson Father Felix Ajakaye said.

Okogie was only elevated to the Curia in 2003, and is not seen as a likely candidate compared with the more experienced Arinze, but at the time of his promotion he expressed cautious support for the idea of a Nigerian pope.

"I think in this election Nigeria will have a place of prominence," he said.

Vatican experts say the choice for the job will depend on whether Italian cardinals are determined to win back a post they dominated for centuries until Poland's Karol Wojtyla became John Paul II.

But if they decide to follow the logic of the church's rapid rise in the developing world, then the white smoke might signal a black pope.

In which case, few would be better placed than Arinze, a popular church diplomat.

By church estimates, the number of Catholics in Africa has nearly doubled, from 50-million to 90-million, in the past 20 years.

More than two-thirds of Catholics are now estimated to come from the "global south".

It is a trend that will continue, with attendances dropping in some parts of Europe and population growth in the poor countries outstripping the West's, filling churches with youthful, energetic and conservative congregations.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the German church man seen by many as John Paul II's deputy, has said electing an African pope "would be a positive sign for the whole of Christendom".

Weighing against the choice of an African, however, will be the electoral mathematics of the Conclave, the 120 or so cardinals aged under 80 who will meet in camera to decide whom the Holy Spirit has chosen as pope.

Europe still accounts for 66 of the total number of cardinals, an outright majority, compared to only 13 from Africa.

Despite being home to more than 15-million Catholics, Nigeria boasts only two cardinals.

But most of the cardinals were put in place by the current pope and share with him, and the majority of African believers, conservative views on barring women from the priesthood and condemning divorce, abortion and homosexuality.

Arinze's time may have come.

- Nampa-AFP

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