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BLANTYRE, Malawi - "Too little, too late" was how analysts on Tuesday portrayed Africa's pressure on Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to ease the political crisis gripping his country and affecting its neighbours.

Leaders of the Southern African Development Community left Monday's summit in Malawi with assurances from Mugabe that presidential elections on March 9-10 will be fair.

Analysts, however, said the commitments were typically vague and it would be left to the United States and the European Union to try to bring about change in Zimbabwe through the threat of sanctions.

"Mugabe realised he will not lose much by giving SADC these promises because they are worded in a manner that allows double interpretation and he will...choose the interpretation that suits his interests," said Elphas

Mukonoweshuro, a University of Zimbabwe political analyst.
Westerners wanted South Africa, Zimbabwe's southern neighbour and the regional powerhouse, to lead from the front.
Those hopes were dashed when South Africa's delegation in Blantyre said it backed "quiet diplomacy".

A summit communique late on Monday said Mugabe had agreed to allow independent election observers and foreign journalists to cover the polls --although parliament was set on Tuesday to debate a law banning foreign correspondents from the country.

The 77-year-old president, who has led Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980, also assured the SADC that he would investigate and act against cases of political violence.

There was even a promise to remove self-styled war veterans from white-owned farms not targeted for seizure by the government under its controversial land resettlement programme.

But Mugabe's doubters were unconvinced.

"Mugabe also realised that the promises he was making allowed everybody at the summit to go home with some dignity... that he had escaped without a damning and embarrassing statement from his colleagues," Mukonoweshuro said.

Mugabe's pledges came as rights group Amnesty International warned of civil war if the opposition is repressed.

Already this month the ruling ZANU-PF party has tightened the presidential grip by passing two laws on public order and electoral rules.

On Tuesday the government was due to table in parliament the media bill Western governments have condemned.

Analysts said the 14-nation SADC, which did not consider calls for sanctions against Zimbabwe, lacked the collective political will to enforce Mugabe's commitments.

Wisdom Malongo, a rights activist at Malawi's Nkhomano Centre for Development, said the SADC was acting more like an old boys' club.

"In the end it's going to look like a dictators' club where people will attend to the issues in a way that's not seen as threatening Mugabe's political office," he said.

Analysts pointed to Mugabe's record on previous promises.

Last September in talks with Britain brokered by Nigeria, he promised to end the violent seizure of farms.

But this has barely been implemented on the ground with Mugabe saying his government is acting within Zimbabwean law.

Malawi's President Bakili Muluzi, the SADC chairman, said the group had not debated sanctions because it believed Mugabe.
SADC executive secretary Prega Ramsamy on Tuesday said he noted "a lot of sincerity on Zimbabwe's part".

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who wants South Africa to impose selective sanctions, has accused the SADC of "double standards and hypocrisy" in its dealings with Mugabe.

Analysts say a tradition of solidarity in the face of Western criticism has undermined the bloc's influence.

COULD DO MORE?

A senior African diplomat said Mugabe had taken advantage of the lack of a coherent strategy inside the SADC and of a view within the South African government that Zimbabweans were not doing enough to tackle their own crisis.

"There is a feeling in South Africa that the political forces in Zimbabwe have not taken a strong enough stance against President Mugabe, and there is a danger of being out of tune," the diplomat said.

But pressure from outside Africa is growing daily.

The 15-member EU has threatened sanctions unless Zimbabwe halts political violence, removes curbs on the media and allows free and fair elections.

The tone of statements on Zimbabwe coming out of the U.S. State Department is strengthening sharply.

On Tuesday London's Financial Times reported that Britain and the United States were seeking to locate millions of dollars thought to have been deposited abroad by Mugabe.

It said the move was in preparation for a possible decision by Washington and the EU to impose personal "smart" sanctions on Mugabe and leading members of his government.

The opposition has long advocated such penalties, involving freezing bank accounts and refusing visas.

There was no immediate response to the report
from Zimbabwe's government.

Some key members of the Commonwealth group of nations want Zimbabwe suspended before heads of government meet in Australia in early March, just ahead of the elections. Nampa-Reuters

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