MOSCOW - Russia's role as arms supplier to Afghanistan's victorious Northern Alliance appears to have given Moscow a strong foothold in the future of the stricken country.

Although Russia and the United States are on the same side in their views on the shape of post-war Afghanistan, they will have carefully manage their relations to avoid big-power competition and tension in the region, analysts said on Wednesday.

In the run-up to an all-Afghan conference in Berlin next week, Russia has aligned itself with the U.N. view that a new Afghan administration must represent all ethnic groups including the Pashtun, the largest grouping.

It insists on the exclusion of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban, the fundamentalist former rulers now fighting a rearguard battle in parts of Afghanistan.

Repeating policy on Monday, Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said Moscow wanted "a coalition of all nationalities and peoples living on Afghan territory, without any discrimination -- with one exception: discrimination against the Taliban."

Russia was providing the Northern Alliance of ousted President Burhanuddin Rabbani with tanks, guns and missiles for years before the September 11 attacks in the United States that triggered the U.S.-led, anti-Taliban campaign in Afghanistan.

With the Alliance now controlling Kabul and Rabbani himself now back in the Afghan capital, this has proved to be an unusually far-sighted move for Russian policy which has a long history of backing the wrong horse in Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union's inability to find a pro-Moscow Afghan leader who could maintain stability in Afghanistan led to Moscow's disastrous 10-year military adventure which cost the lives of 15,000 soldiers.

Former President Najibullah, the last in a line of pro-Moscow Afghan leaders, was dragged from a U.N. building and executed by the Taliban when they took over Kabul in 1996.

In public statements, Russian officials stress they will continue to arm the Alliance -- foreshadowing Russian support for strong Alliance representation in the new Afghanistan.

Russian influence over the Alliance and Rabbani could prove beneficial for the international community, analysts said.

"It (Russia) can temper the ambitions of Rabbani and can impress on him that he can not monopolise power and that he must share," Boris Makarenko, deputy director of Moscow's Centre for Political Technologies, said.

Moscow's ability to influence the political game inside Afghanistan without acting in tandem with the United States and other major powers might be limited however, analysts said.

Moscow itself will have few illusions about being able to count indefinitely on accumulated capital in Afghanistan, a country of rapidly-shifting alliances and short political memories.

Analysts said relations with the United States, whose forces are using military bases in Russia's Central Asian backyard, would still have to be carefully monitored over the coming months.

"We can expect both tensions and cooperation between Russia and the United States in the future. But this is a high priority for both powers and the change in global climate means they will stop short of competition and jealousies in the region," said Makarenko, an expert on Afghanistan.

Analysts said Russia's geo-political interests were to see the creation of a stable, friendly government in Afghanistan -- possibly a U.N. protectorate in which the United States and Russia would play key roles.

"Russia has greater interests in Afghanistan than any other power, more than the United States and the United Kingdom," said Grigory Bondarevski, a consultant for the Institute of Eastern Studies. "We want normal, friendly relations with a stable Afghanistan."

"Getting a military victory in Afghanistan is the easy part. But keeping tranquillity afterwards is more challenging," Makarenko said.

"Russia has no view on any particular political line in Afghanistan. What it does want is for Afghanistan to cease being a source of terror and fundamentalism that spills over into Central Asia and from there into Russia," he added. Nampa-Reuters